老年驾驶员卷入警方报告的撞车事故和致命撞车事故的情况：趋势与预测。
Older driver involvements in police reported crashes and fatal crashes: trends and projections.
作者信息
Lyman S, Ferguson S A, Braver E R, Williams A F
机构信息
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Arlington, VA 22201, USA.
出版信息
Inj Prev. 2002 Jun;8(2):116-20. doi: 10.1136/ip.8.2.116.
OBJECTIVES
Older drivers have become a larger part of the driving population and will continue to do so as the baby boomers reach retirement age. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential effects of this population increase on highway safety.
METHODS
Driver involvement rates for all police reported crashes were calculated per capita, per licensed driver, and per vehicle-mile of travel for 1990 and 1995. Also, driver involvement rates for fatal crashes were calculated for 1983, 1990, and 1995. Based on current crash rates per licensed driver and estimates of the future number of licensed drivers, projections of crashes involving drivers aged 65 and older were made for years 2010, 2020, and 2030.
RESULTS
Driver crash involvement rates per capita decreased with age, but fatal involvement rates per capita increased starting at age 70. The same pattern existed for involvement rates per licensed driver. For both all crashes and fatal crashes, involvement rates per mile driven increased appreciably at age 70. Using projections of population growth, it was estimated that for all ages there will be a 34% increase in the number of drivers involved in police reported crashes and a 39% increase in the number involved in fatal crashes between 1999 and 2030. In contrast, among older drivers, police reported crash involvements are expected to increase by 178% and fatal involvements may increase by 155% by 2030. Drivers aged 65 and older will account for more than half of the total increase in fatal crashes and about 40% of the expected increase in all crash involvements; they are expected to account for as much as 25% of total driver fatalities in 2030, compared with 14% presently.
CONCLUSIONS
By most measures, older drivers are at less risk of being involved in police reported crashes but at higher risk of being in fatal crashes. Although any projections of future crash counts have inherent uncertainty, there is strong evidence that older drivers will make up a substantially larger proportion of drivers involved in fatal crashes by 2030 because of future increases in the proportion of the population aged 65 and older, and trends toward increased licensure rates and higher annual mileage among older persons. Countermeasures to reduce the anticipated death toll among older drivers should address the increased susceptibility to injury of older vehicle occupants in crashes.
目的
老年驾驶者在驾驶人群中所占比例越来越大，随着婴儿潮一代达到退休年龄，这一比例还将继续上升。本研究旨在确定这一人口增长对公路安全的潜在影响。
方法
计算了1990年和1995年所有警方报告的撞车事故中人均、每持证驾驶者以及每车英里行驶的驾驶者参与率。此外，还计算了1983年、1990年和1995年致命撞车事故的驾驶者参与率。根据当前每持证驾驶者的撞车率以及未来持证驾驶者数量的估计，对2010年、2020年和2030年涉及65岁及以上驾驶者的撞车事故进行了预测。
结果
人均驾驶者撞车参与率随年龄增长而下降，但人均致命参与率从70岁开始上升。每持证驾驶者的参与率也呈现相同模式。对于所有撞车事故和致命撞车事故，每英里行驶的参与率在70岁时显著上升。利用人口增长预测，估计在1999年至2030年期间，所有年龄段涉及警方报告撞车事故的驾驶者数量将增加34%，涉及致命撞车事故的驾驶者数量将增加39%。相比之下，到2030年，在老年驾驶者中，警方报告的撞车事故参与率预计将增加178%，致命事故参与率可能增加155%。65岁及以上的驾驶者将占致命撞车事故总增加量的一半以上，以及所有撞车事故预计增加量的约40%；预计到2030年，他们将占驾驶者总死亡人数的25%，而目前为14%。
结论
从大多数指标来看，老年驾驶者涉及警方报告撞车事故的风险较低，但发生致命撞车事故的风险较高。尽管未来撞车事故数量的任何预测都存在内在的不确定性，但有强有力的证据表明，由于65岁及以上人口比例的未来增加以及老年人执照发放率上升和年行驶里程增加的趋势，到2030年，老年驾驶者在致命撞车事故中所占比例将大幅增加。减少老年驾驶者预期死亡人数的对策应针对撞车事故中老年车辆乘员受伤易感性增加的问题。
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