Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), V.le A. Moro 44, 40127 Bologna, Italy.
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), V.le A. Moro 44, 40127 Bologna, Italy; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Bologna, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2015 Jan 15;503-504:222-32. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.06.036. Epub 2014 Jul 5.
In this study, we analyse the observed long-term discharge time-series of the Rhine, the Danube, the Rhone and the Po rivers. These rivers are characterised by different seasonal cycles reflecting the diverse climates and morphologies of the Alpine basins. However, despite the intensive and varied water management adopted in the four basins, we found common features in the trend and low-frequency variability of the spring discharge timings. All the discharge time-series display a tendency towards earlier spring peaks of more than two weeks per century. These results can be explained in terms of snowmelt, total precipitation (i.e. the sum of snowfall and rainfall) and rainfall variability. The relative importance of these factors might be different in each basin. However, we show that the change of seasonality of total precipitation plays a major role in the earlier spring runoff over most of the Alps.
在这项研究中，我们分析了莱茵河、多瑙河、罗纳河和波河的观测到的长期排放时间序列。这些河流的季节性周期不同，反映了阿尔卑斯盆地不同的气候和地貌特征。然而，尽管四个流域都采用了密集多样的水资源管理措施，但我们发现春汛时间的趋势和低频变化存在共同特征。所有的排放时间序列都显示出每世纪提前两周以上的春汛高峰的趋势。这些结果可以用融雪、总降水量（即降雪和降雨之和）和降雨变化来解释。这些因素的相对重要性在每个流域可能不同。然而，我们表明，总降水量季节性的变化在阿尔卑斯山大部分地区春季径流量提前中起着主要作用。
