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在全国具有代表性的严重撞车事故样本中,青少年与成年驾驶员撞车场景的比较。

Comparison of teen and adult driver crash scenarios in a nationally representative sample of serious crashes.

作者信息

McDonald Catherine C, Curry Allison E, Kandadai Venk, Sommers Marilyn S, Winston Flaura K

机构信息

University of Pennsylvania, School of Nursing, Center for Global Women's Health, Center for Health Equity Research, Claire Fagin Hall, 418 Curie Boulevard, Philadelphia, PA 19104-4217, USA; Center for Injury Research and Prevention, The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, 3535 Market Street, Suite 1150, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.

Center for Injury Research and Prevention, The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, 3535 Market Street, Suite 1150, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA; Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, 423 Guardian Drive, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2014 Nov;72:302-8. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.07.016. Epub 2014 Aug 5.

Abstract

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death and acquired disability during the first four decades of life. While teen drivers have the highest crash risk, few studies examine the similarities and differences in teen and adult driver crashes. We aimed to: (1) identify and compare the most frequent crash scenarios-integrated information on a vehicle's movement prior to crash, immediate pre-crash event, and crash configuration-for teen and adult drivers involved in serious crashes, and (2) for the most frequent scenarios, explore whether the distribution of driver critical errors differed for teens and adult drivers. We analyzed data from the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey, a nationally representative study of serious crashes conducted by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration from 2005 to 2007. Our sample included 642 16- to 19-year-old and 1167 35- to 54-year-old crash-involved drivers (weighted n=296,482 and 439,356, respectively) who made a critical error that led to their crash's critical pre-crash event (i.e., event that made the crash inevitable). We estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare the relative frequency of crash scenarios and driver critical errors. The top five crash scenarios among teen drivers, accounting for 37.3% of their crashes, included: (1) going straight, other vehicle stopped, rear end; (2) stopped in traffic lane, turning left at intersection, turn into path of other vehicle; (3) negotiating curve, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; (4) going straight, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; and (5) stopped in lane, turning left at intersection, turn across path of other vehicle. The top five crash scenarios among adult drivers, accounting for 33.9% of their crashes, included the same scenarios as the teen drivers with the exception of scenario (3) and the addition of going straight, crossing over an intersection, and continuing on a straight path. For two scenarios ((1) and (3) above), teens were more likely than adults to make a critical decision error (e.g., traveling too fast for conditions). Our findings indicate that among those who make a driver critical error in a serious crash, there are few differences in the scenarios or critical driver errors for teen and adult drivers.

摘要

机动车撞车事故是导致人们在生命的前四十年死亡和后天残疾的主要原因。虽然青少年驾驶员的撞车风险最高,但很少有研究探讨青少年和成年驾驶员撞车事故的异同。我们的目标是:(1)识别并比较严重撞车事故中青少年和成年驾驶员最常见的撞车场景——整合撞车事故发生前车辆的行驶信息、撞车事故发生前即刻事件以及撞车事故形态,以及(2)对于最常见的场景,探究青少年和成年驾驶员关键驾驶失误的分布是否存在差异。我们分析了美国国家公路交通安全管理局在2005年至2007年进行的全国代表性严重撞车事故研究——国家机动车撞车事故因果调查的数据。我们的样本包括642名16至19岁以及1167名35至54岁涉及撞车事故的驾驶员(加权样本量分别为296,482和439,356),他们都犯了一个导致撞车事故发生前关键事件(即使撞车事故不可避免的事件)的关键失误。我们估计患病率比(PR)和95%置信区间(CI),以比较撞车场景和驾驶员关键失误的相对频率。青少年驾驶员中排名前五的撞车场景,占其撞车事故的37.3%,包括:(1)直行,其他车辆停车,追尾;(2)在行车道停车,在十字路口左转,驶入其他车辆行驶路径;(3)通过弯道,驶离道路右侧边缘,右侧路边驶离;(4)直行,驶离道路右侧边缘,右侧路边驶离;以及(5)在车道停车,在十字路口左转,穿过其他车辆行驶路径。成年驾驶员中排名前五的撞车场景,占其撞车事故的33.9%,除了场景(3)外,与青少年驾驶员的相同场景相同,还增加了直行、穿过十字路口并继续沿直线路径行驶。对于两种场景(上述(1)和(3)),青少年比成年人更有可能做出关键决策失误(例如,行驶速度超过路况允许)。我们的研究结果表明,在严重撞车事故中犯有关键驾驶失误的人群中,青少年和成年驾驶员在撞车场景或关键驾驶失误方面几乎没有差异。

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