Seacrist Thomas, Belwadi Aditya, Prabahar Abhiti, Chamberlain Samuel, Megariotis James, Loeb Helen
a Center for Injury Research and Prevention, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia , Philadelphia , Pennsylvania.
b Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering , University of Pennsylvania , Philadelphia , Pennsylvania.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2016 Sep;17 Suppl 1:48-52. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2016.1188384.
Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death for teens. Previous teen and adult crash rates have been based upon fatal crashes, police-reported crashes, and estimated miles driven. Large-scale naturalistic driving studies offer the opportunity to compute crash rates using a reliable methodology to capture crashes and driving exposure. The Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study contains extensive real-world data on teen and adult driving. This article presents findings on the crash rates of novice teen and experienced adult drivers in naturalistic crashes.
A subset from the SHRP2 database consisting of 539 crash events for novice teens (16-19 years, n = 549) and experienced adults (35-54 years, n = 591) was used. Onboard instrumentation such as scene cameras, accelerometers, and Global Positioning System logged time series data at 10 Hz. Scene videos were reviewed for all events to identify rear-end striking crashes. Dynamic variables such as acceleration and velocity were analyzed for rear-end striking events. Number of crashes, crash rates, rear-end striking crash severity, and rear-end striking impact velocity were compared between novice teens and experienced adults.
Video review of the SHRP2 crashes identified significantly more crashes (P < 0.01) and rear-end striking crashes (P < 0.01) among the teen group than among the adult group. This yielded crash rates of 30.0 crashes per million miles driven for novice teens compared to 5.3 crashes per million miles driven for experienced adults. The crash rate ratio for teens vs. adults was 5.7. The rear-end striking crash rate was 13.5 and 1.8 per million miles driven for novice teens and experienced adults, respectively. The rear-end striking crash rate ratio for teens vs. adults was 7.5. The rear-end striking crash severity measured by the accelerometers was greater (P < 0.05) for the teen group (1.8 ± 0.9 g; median = 1.6 g) than for the adult group (1.1 ± 0.4 g; median = 1.0 g), suggesting that teen crashes tend to be more serious than adult crashes. Increased rear-end striking impact velocity (P < 0.01) was also observed for novice teens (18.8 ± 13.2 mph; median = 18.9 mph) compared to experienced adults (3.3 ± 1.2 mph; median = 2.8 mph).
To our knowledge, this is the first study to compare crash rates between teens and adults using a large-scale naturalistic driving database. Unlike previous crash rates, the reported rates reliably control for crash type and driving exposure. These results conform to previous findings that novice teens exhibit increased crash rates compared to experienced adults.
机动车碰撞是青少年死亡的主要原因。以往青少年和成人的碰撞率是基于致命碰撞、警方报告的碰撞以及估计的行驶里程数得出的。大规模的自然驾驶研究提供了使用可靠方法计算碰撞率的机会，以获取碰撞情况和驾驶暴露数据。战略公路研究计划2（SHRP2）自然驾驶研究包含了关于青少年和成人驾驶的大量真实世界数据。本文呈现了自然碰撞中新手青少年和有经验成人的碰撞率研究结果。
使用了SHRP2数据库中的一个子集，其中包括539起新手青少年（16 - 19岁，n = 549）和有经验成人（35 - 54岁，n = 591）的碰撞事件。车载仪器如场景摄像头、加速度计和全球定位系统以10赫兹记录时间序列数据。对所有事件的场景视频进行审查以识别追尾碰撞。对追尾碰撞事件分析加速度和速度等动态变量。比较新手青少年和有经验成人之间的碰撞次数、碰撞率、追尾碰撞严重程度以及追尾碰撞冲击速度。
对SHRP2碰撞事件的视频审查发现，青少年组的碰撞事件（P < 0.01）和追尾碰撞事件（P < 0.01）明显多于成人组。这使得新手青少年每百万英里行驶的碰撞率为30.0次，而有经验成人每百万英里行驶的碰撞率为5.3次。青少年与成人的碰撞率之比为5.7。新手青少年和有经验成人每百万英里行驶的追尾碰撞率分别为13.5次和1.8次。青少年与成人的追尾碰撞率之比为7.5。用加速度计测量的追尾碰撞严重程度在青少年组（1.8 ± 0.9 g；中位数 = 1.6 g）比成人组（1.1 ± 0.4 g；中位数 = 1.0 g）更高（P < 0.05），这表明青少年碰撞往往比成人碰撞更严重。与有经验成人（3.3 ± 1.2 mph；中位数 = 2.8 mph）相比，新手青少年的追尾碰撞冲击速度也有所增加（P < 0.01）（18.8 ± 13.2 mph；中位数 = 18.9 mph）。
据我们所知，这是第一项使用大规模自然驾驶数据库比较青少年和成人碰撞率的研究。与以往的碰撞率不同，所报告的率可靠地控制了碰撞类型和驾驶暴露情况。这些结果与之前的研究结果一致，即新手青少年的碰撞率高于有经验的成人。
