Kelso Joel K, Milne George J
School of Computer Science and Software Engineering, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia.
PLoS One. 2014 Aug 8;9(8):e104646. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0104646. eCollection 2014.
The spread of Bluetongue virus (BTV) among ruminants is caused by movement of infected host animals or by movement of infected Culicoides midges, the vector of BTV. Biologically plausible models of Culicoides dispersal are necessary for predicting the spread of BTV and are important for planning control and eradication strategies.
A spatially-explicit simulation model which captures the two underlying population mechanisms, population dynamics and movement, was developed using extensive data from a trapping program for C. brevitarsis on the east coast of Australia. A realistic midge flight sub-model was developed and the annual incursion and population establishment of C. brevitarsis was simulated. Data from the literature was used to parameterise the model.
The model was shown to reproduce the spread of C. brevitarsis southwards along the east Australian coastline in spring, from an endemic population to the north. Such incursions were shown to be reliant on wind-dispersal; Culicoides midge active flight on its own was not capable of achieving known rates of southern spread, nor was re-emergence of southern populations due to overwintering larvae. Data from midge trapping programmes were used to qualitatively validate the resulting simulation model.
The model described in this paper is intended to form the vector component of an extended model that will also include BTV transmission. A model of midge movement and population dynamics has been developed in sufficient detail such that the extended model may be used to evaluate the timing and extent of BTV outbreaks. This extended model could then be used as a platform for addressing the effectiveness of spatially targeted vaccination strategies or animal movement bans as BTV spread mitigation measures, or the impact of climate change on the risk and extent of outbreaks. These questions involving incursive Culicoides spread cannot be simply addressed with non-spatial models.
蓝舌病病毒（BTV）在反刍动物中的传播是由受感染宿主动物的移动或由BTV的传播媒介——受感染的库蠓的移动引起的。库蠓传播的生物学合理模型对于预测BTV的传播是必要的，并且对于规划控制和根除策略很重要。
利用来自澳大利亚东海岸短角库蠓诱捕计划的大量数据，开发了一个空间明确的模拟模型，该模型捕捉了两个潜在的种群机制，即种群动态和移动。开发了一个逼真的蠓飞行子模型，并模拟了短角库蠓的年度入侵和种群建立。文献数据用于对模型进行参数化。
该模型显示能够再现春季短角库蠓沿澳大利亚东海岸向南从北部的地方种群扩散的情况。这种入侵被证明依赖于风传播；库蠓自身的主动飞行无法达到已知的向南扩散速度，南部种群也不会因越冬幼虫而重新出现。蠓诱捕计划的数据用于定性验证所得的模拟模型。
本文描述的模型旨在构成一个扩展模型的媒介部分，该扩展模型还将包括BTV传播。已经详细开发了一个蠓移动和种群动态模型，以便扩展模型可用于评估BTV疫情爆发的时间和范围。然后，这个扩展模型可以用作一个平台，用于评估空间靶向疫苗接种策略或动物移动禁令作为减轻BTV传播措施的有效性，或气候变化对疫情爆发风险和范围的影响。这些涉及入侵性库蠓传播的问题不能用非空间模型简单解决。
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