The dynamics and drivers of fuel and fire in the Portuguese public forest.

The assumption that increased wildfire incidence in the Mediterranean Basin during the last decades is an outcome of changes in land use warrants an objective analysis. In this study we examine how annual area burned (BA) in the Portuguese public forest varied in relation to environmental and human-influenced drivers during the 1943-2011 period. Fire behaviour models were used to describe fuel hazard considering biomass removal, cover type changes, area burned, post-disturbance fuel accumulation, forest age-classes distribution and fuel connectivity. Biomass removal decreased rapidly beyond the 1940s, which, along with afforestation, increased fuel hazard until the 1980s; a subsequent decline was caused by increased fire activity. Change point analysis indicates upward shifts in BA in 1952 and in 1973, both corresponding to six-fold increases. Fire weather (expressed by the 90th percentile of the Canadian FWI during summer) increased over the study period, accounting for 18 and 36% of log(BA) variation before 1974 and after 1973, respectively. Regression modelling indicates that BA responds positively to fire weather, fuel hazard and number of fires in descending order of importance; pre-summer and 2-year lagged precipitation respectively decrease and increase BA, but the effects are minor and non-significant when both variables are included in the model. Land use conflicts (expressed through more fires) played a role, but it was afforestation and agricultural abandonment that supported the fire regime shifts, explaining weather-drought as the current major driver of BA as well. We conclude that bottom-up factors, i.e. human-induced changes in landscape flammability and ignition density, can enhance or override the influence of weather-drought on the fire regime in Mediterranean humid regions. A more relevant role of fuel control in fire management policies and practices is warranted by our findings.