Modeling the distribution of illicit oily discharges detected by aerial surveillance in western Canadian marine waters.

Oily discharges from vessel operations have been documented in Canada's Pacific region by the National Aerial Surveillance Program (NASP) since the early 1990s. We explored a number of regression methods to explain the distribution and counts per grid cell of oily discharges detected from 1998 to 2007 using independent predictor variables, while trying to address the large number of zeros present in the data. Best-fit models indicate that discharges are generally concentrated close to shore typically in association with small harbours, and with major commercial and tourist centers. Oily discharges were also concentrated in Barkley Sound and at the entrance of Juan de Fuca Strait. The identification of important factors associated with discharge patterns, and predicting discharge rates in areas with surveillance effort can be used to inform future surveillance. Model output can also be used as inputs for risk models for existing conditions and as baseline for future scenarios.