Hitchens Peta L, Curry Beverley, Blizzard C Leigh, Palmer Andrew J
Menzies Research Institute Tasmania, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, USA.
Menzies Research Institute Tasmania, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Inj Prev. 2015 Apr;21(2):109-14. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2014-041223. Epub 2014 Sep 12.
The profession of a horse-racing jockey is a dangerous one. We developed a decision tree model quantifying the effects of implementing different safety strategies on jockey fall and injury rates and their associated costs.
Data on race-day falls were obtained from stewards' reports from August 2002 to July 2009. Insurance claim data were provided by Principal Racing Authorities and workers' compensation authorities in each jurisdiction. Fall and claim incidence data were used as baseline rates. The model considered (1) the status quo, in which policy was unchanged; and (2) compared it with four hypothetical changes in policy that restricted apprentice jockeys from riding less-accomplished horses, with the aim of improving safety by reducing incidence of injurious jockey falls. Second-order Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to account for uncertainties.
The point estimate for mean costs of falls under the status quo was $30.73/ride, with falls by apprentice jockeys with <250 career race rides riding horses with less than five race starts contributing the highest costs ($98.49/ride). The hypothetical safety strategies resulted in a 1.04%-5.07% decrease in fall rates versus status quo. For three of the four strategies, significant reductions of 8.74%-13.13% in workers' compensation costs over one single race season were predicted. Costs were highly sensitive to large claims.
This model is a useful instrument for comparing potential changes in cost and risks associated with implementing new safety strategies in the horseracing industry.
赛马骑师这一职业充满危险。我们开发了一种决策树模型，用于量化实施不同安全策略对骑师摔倒和受伤率及其相关成本的影响。
从2002年8月至2009年7月的赛事管理员报告中获取比赛日摔倒的数据。各司法管辖区的主要赛马管理机构和工人赔偿机构提供保险索赔数据。摔倒和索赔发生率数据用作基线率。该模型考虑了：（1）政策不变的现状；（2）将其与四项假设的政策变化进行比较，这些变化限制学徒骑师骑乘成绩较差的马匹，目的是通过降低骑师受伤摔倒的发生率来提高安全性。进行二阶蒙特卡罗模拟以考虑不确定性。
现状下摔倒的平均成本点估计为每次骑行30.73美元，职业生涯比赛骑行次数少于250次且所骑马匹比赛起跑次数少于五次的学徒骑师摔倒导致的成本最高（每次骑行98.49美元）。假设的安全策略使摔倒率比现状降低了1.04%-5.07%。对于四项策略中的三项，预计在一个比赛赛季中工人赔偿成本将显著降低8.74%-13.13%。成本对大额索赔高度敏感。
该模型是一种有用的工具，可用于比较在赛马行业实施新安全策略相关的成本和风险的潜在变化。
