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考虑气候变化情景,开发模糊多准则方法对经处理废水利用地点进行优先级排序。

Development of fuzzy multi-criteria approach to prioritize locations of treated wastewater use considering climate change scenarios.

作者信息

Chung Eun-Sung, Kim Yeonjoo

机构信息

Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Korea Environment Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2014 Dec 15;146:505-516. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.08.013. Epub 2014 Sep 11.

DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.08.013
PMID:25218330
Abstract

This study proposed a robust prioritization framework to identify the priorities of treated wastewater (TWW) use locations with consideration of various uncertainties inherent in the climate change scenarios and the decision-making process. First, a fuzzy concept was applied because future forecast precipitation and their hydrological impact analysis results displayed significant variances when considering various climate change scenarios and long periods (e.g., 2010-2099). Second, various multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques including weighted sum method (WSM), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and fuzzy TOPSIS were introduced to robust prioritization because different MCDM methods use different decision philosophies. Third, decision making method under complete uncertainty (DMCU) including maximin, maximax, minimax regret, Hurwicz, and equal likelihood were used to find robust final rankings. This framework is then applied to a Korean urban watershed. As a result, different rankings were obviously appeared between fuzzy TOPSIS and non-fuzzy MCDMs (e.g., WSM and TOPSIS) because the inter-annual variability in effectiveness was considered only with fuzzy TOPSIS. Then, robust prioritizations were derived based on 18 rankings from nine decadal periods of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For more robust rankings, five DMCU approaches using the rankings from fuzzy TOPSIS were derived. This framework combining fuzzy TOPSIS with DMCU approaches can be rendered less controversial among stakeholders under complete uncertainty of changing environments.

摘要

本研究提出了一个稳健的优先级排序框架,以确定经处理废水(TWW)使用地点的优先级,同时考虑气候变化情景和决策过程中固有的各种不确定性。首先,应用了模糊概念,因为在考虑各种气候变化情景和较长时期(例如2010 - 2099年)时,未来预测降水量及其水文影响分析结果显示出显著差异。其次,引入了各种多准则决策(MCDM)技术,包括加权和法(WSM)、逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)和模糊TOPSIS,用于稳健的优先级排序,因为不同的MCDM方法使用不同的决策理念。第三,使用包括最大最小、最大最大、最小最大后悔值、赫维茨和等可能性在内的完全不确定性下的决策方法(DMCU)来确定稳健的最终排名。然后将该框架应用于韩国的一个城市流域。结果,模糊TOPSIS与非模糊MCDM方法(如WSM和TOPSIS)之间出现了明显不同的排名,因为只有模糊TOPSIS考虑了有效性的年际变化。然后,基于RCP4.5和RCP8.5九个十年期的18个排名得出了稳健的优先级排序。为了获得更稳健的排名,使用模糊TOPSIS的排名得出了五种DMCU方法。在变化环境的完全不确定性下,将模糊TOPSIS与DMCU方法相结合的这个框架在利益相关者之间可能会减少争议。

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