Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-UVSQ-CNRS UMR 8212, Institut Pierre et Simon Laplace, L'Orme des Merisiers, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France.
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-UVSQ-CNRS UMR 8212, Institut Pierre et Simon Laplace, L'Orme des Merisiers, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France.
Environ Int. 2014 Dec;73:346-58. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2014.08.012. Epub 2014 Sep 16.
Radioactive contamination in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia after the Chernobyl accident left large rural and forest areas to their own fate. Forest succession in conjunction with lack of forest management started gradually transforming the landscape. During the last 28 years dead wood and litter have dramatically accumulated in these areas, whereas climate change has increased temperature and favored drought. The present situation in these forests suggests an increased risk of wildfires, especially after the pronounced forest fires of 2010, which remobilized Chernobyl-deposited radioactive materials transporting them thousand kilometers far. For the aforementioned reasons, we study the consequences of different forest fires on the redistribution of (137)Cs. Using the time frequency of the fires that occurred in the area during 2010, we study three scenarios assuming that 10%, 50% and 100% of the area are burnt. We aim to sensitize the scientific community and the European authorities for the foreseen risks from radioactivity redistribution over Europe. The global model LMDZORINCA that reads deposition density of radionuclides and burnt area from satellites was used, whereas risks for the human and animal population were calculated using the Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model and the computerized software ERICA Tool, respectively. Depending on the scenario, whereas between 20 and 240 humans may suffer from solid cancers, of which 10-170 may be fatal. ERICA predicts insignificant changes in animal populations from the fires, whereas the already extreme radioactivity background plays a major role in their living quality. The resulting releases of (137)Cs after hypothetical wildfires in Chernobyl's forests are classified as high in the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES). The estimated cancer incidents and fatalities are expected to be comparable to those predicted for Fukushima. This is attributed to the fact that the distribution of radioactive fallout after the wildfires occurred to the intensely populated Western Europe, whereas after Fukushima it occurred towards the Pacific Ocean. The situation will be exacerbated near the forests not only due to the expected redistribution of refractory radionuclides (also trapped there), but also due to the nutritional habits of the local human and animal population.
乌克兰、白俄罗斯和俄罗斯的切尔诺贝利事故造成放射性污染，大片农村和森林地区处于自生自灭的状态。森林演替加上缺乏森林管理，逐渐改变了景观。在过去的 28 年里，这些地区的枯木和落叶大量积累，而气候变化则提高了温度，有利于干旱的发生。目前这些森林的情况表明，火灾风险增加，尤其是在 2010 年发生明显森林火灾之后，这些火灾使切尔诺贝利沉降的放射性物质重新移动，将其输送到千里之外。鉴于上述原因，我们研究了不同森林火灾对（137）Cs再分布的影响。我们利用该地区 2010 年发生火灾的时间频率，研究了三个假设情景，即假设 10%、50%和 100%的地区被烧毁。我们旨在引起科学界和欧洲当局对放射性物质在欧洲重新分布的预期风险的关注。我们使用了读取卫星沉积的放射性核素密度和燃烧面积的全球模型 LMDZORINCA，分别使用线性无阈值（LNT）模型和计算机化软件 ERICA Tool 计算了对人类和动物种群的风险。根据情景的不同，可能有 20 到 240 人会患上实体癌症，其中 10 到 170 人可能会因此死亡。ERICA 预测火灾对动物种群的影响微不足道，而已经非常极端的放射性背景对它们的生活质量起着重要作用。假设切尔诺贝利森林发生野火后，（137）Cs 的释放被归类为国际核事件分级表（INES）中的高等级。预计癌症发病率和死亡率将与福岛核事故的预测结果相当。这归因于这样一个事实，即在野火发生后，放射性沉降物的分布发生在人口密集的西欧，而在福岛核事故后，放射性沉降物则向太平洋方向扩散。由于野火后不仅预期难熔放射性核素（也被困在那里）的再分布，而且由于当地人类和动物种群的营养习惯，森林附近的情况将更加恶化。
