Gavrilov Leonid A, Gavrilova Natalia S
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago, USA.
Vienna Yearb Popul Res. 2013 Apr;11:295-323. doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2013s295.
Studies of centenarians are useful in identifying factors leading to long life and avoidance of fatal diseases. In this article we consider several approaches to study effects of early-life and midlife conditions on survival to advanced ages: use of non-biological relatives as controls, the within-family analysis, as well as a sampling of controls from the same population universe as centenarians. These approaches are illustrated using data on American centenarians, their relatives and unrelated shorter-lived controls obtained from the online genealogies. The within-family analysis revealed that young maternal age at person's birth is associated with higher chances of exceptional longevity. Comparison of centenarians and their shorter-lived peers (died at age 65 and sampled from the same pool of online genealogies) confirmed that birth timing in the second half of the calendar year predicts survival to age 100. Parental longevity as well as some childhood and midlife characteristics also proved to be significant predictors of exceptional longevity.
对百岁老人的研究有助于确定导致长寿和避免致命疾病的因素。在本文中,我们考虑了几种研究早年和中年状况对高龄生存影响的方法:使用非生物学亲属作为对照、家庭内部分析,以及从与百岁老人相同的总体人群中抽取对照样本。我们使用从在线家谱中获取的美国百岁老人及其亲属和非亲属的短寿对照的数据来说明这些方法。家庭内部分析显示,个人出生时母亲年龄较小与超长寿命的几率较高有关。百岁老人与其短寿同龄人(65岁去世,且从相同的在线家谱库中抽样)的比较证实,日历年度下半年的出生时间可预测活到100岁。父母的长寿以及一些童年和中年特征也被证明是超长寿命的重要预测因素。