Gavrilov Leonid A, Gavrilova Natalia S
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois ; WHO Collaborating Centre, Department of Statistical Analysis of Population Health, Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia.
N Am Actuar J. 2015;19(3):174-186. doi: 10.1080/10920277.2015.1018390.
Knowledge of strong predictors of mortality and longevity is very important for actuarial science and practice. Earlier studies found that parental characteristics as well as early-life conditions and midlife environment play a significant role in survival to advanced ages. However, little is known about the simultaneous effects of these three factors on longevity. This ongoing study attempts to fill this gap by comparing centenarians born in the United States in 1890-1891 with peers born in the same years who died at age 65. The records for centenarians and controls were taken from computerized family histories, which were then linked to 1900 and 1930 U.S. censuses. As a result of this linkage procedure, 765 records of confirmed centenarians and 783 records of controls were obtained. Analysis with multivariate logistic regression found the existence of both general and gender-specific predictors of human longevity. General predictors common for men and women are paternal and maternal longevity. Gender-specific predictors of male longevity are occupation as a farmer at age 40, Northeastern region of birth in the United States, and birth in the second half of year. A gender-specific predictor of female longevity is the availability of radio in the household according to the 1930 U.S. census. Given the importance of familial longevity as an independent predictor of survival to advanced ages, we conducted a comparative study of biological and nonbiological relatives of centenarians using a larger sample of 1,945 validated U.S. centenarians born in 1880-1895. We found that male gender of centenarian has a significant positive effect on survival of adult male relatives (brothers and fathers) but not female blood relatives. Life span of centenarian siblings-in-law is lower compared to life span of centenarian siblings and does not depend on centenarian gender. Wives of male centenarians (who share lifestyle and living conditions) have a significantly better survival compared to wives of centenarians' brothers. This finding demonstrates an important role of shared familial environment and lifestyle in human longevity. The results of this study suggest that familial background, some early-life conditions and midlife characteristics play an important role in longevity.
了解死亡率和长寿的强预测因素对于精算科学和实践非常重要。早期研究发现，父母的特征以及早年的生活条件和中年环境对活到高龄起着重要作用。然而，对于这三个因素对长寿的同时影响却知之甚少。这项正在进行的研究试图通过比较1890 - 1891年在美国出生的百岁老人与同年出生但65岁去世的同龄人来填补这一空白。百岁老人和对照组的记录来自计算机化的家族史，然后与1900年和1930年的美国人口普查数据相链接。通过这种链接程序，获得了765条经确认的百岁老人记录和783条对照组记录。多元逻辑回归分析发现了人类长寿的一般预测因素和特定性别的预测因素。男性和女性共有的一般预测因素是父亲和母亲的长寿。男性长寿的特定性预测因素是40岁时的农民职业、在美国东北部地区出生以及下半年出生。女性长寿的特定性预测因素是根据1930年美国人口普查，家庭中拥有收音机。鉴于家族长寿作为活到高龄的独立预测因素的重要性，我们使用了1945名1880 - 1895年出生的经过验证的美国百岁老人的更大样本，对百岁老人的生物学和非生物学亲属进行了比较研究。我们发现，百岁老人的男性性别对成年男性亲属（兄弟和父亲）的生存有显著的积极影响，但对女性血亲则没有。与百岁老人的兄弟姐妹相比，百岁老人的姻亲的寿命较低，且不取决于百岁老人的性别。男性百岁老人的妻子（共享生活方式和生活条件）的生存情况明显优于百岁老人兄弟的妻子。这一发现表明了共享的家族环境和生活方式在人类长寿中的重要作用。这项研究的结果表明，家族背景、一些早年生活条件和中年特征在长寿中起着重要作用。
