Becker J K, Lindborg T, Thorne M C
National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste (Nagra), Switzerland.
Svensk Kärnbränslehantering AB, Stockholm, Sweden.
J Environ Radioact. 2014 Dec;138:192-204. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2014.08.010. Epub 2014 Sep 22.
In safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes, large spatial and temporal scales have to be considered when developing an approach to risk calculations. A wide range of different types of information may be required. Local to the site of interest, temperature and precipitation data may be used to determine the erosional regime (which may also be conditioned by the vegetation characteristics adopted, based both on climatic and other considerations). However, geomorphological changes may be governed by regional rather than local considerations, e.g. alteration of river base levels, river capture and drainage network reorganisation, or the progression of an ice sheet or valley glacier across the site. The regional climate is in turn governed by the global climate. In this work, a commentary is presented on the types of climate models that can be used to develop projections of climate change for use in post-closure radiological impact assessments of geological repositories for radioactive wastes. These models include both Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity. The relevant outputs available from these models are identified and consideration is given to how these outputs may be used to inform projections of landscape development. Issues of spatial and temporal downscaling of climate model outputs to meet the requirements of local-scale landscape development modelling are also addressed. An example is given of how climate change and landscape development influence the radiological impact of radionuclides potentially released from the deep geological disposal facility for spent nuclear fuel that SKB (the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company) proposes to construct at Forsmark, Sweden.
在放射性废物储存库的安全评估中，在制定风险计算方法时必须考虑大的空间和时间尺度。可能需要广泛的不同类型的信息。在感兴趣的场地局部，温度和降水数据可用于确定侵蚀状态（这也可能受基于气候和其他考虑因素所采用的植被特征的制约）。然而，地貌变化可能受区域而非局部因素的控制，例如河床基准面的改变、河流袭夺和排水网络重组，或者冰盖或山谷冰川在该场地的推进。区域气候又受全球气候的控制。在这项工作中，对可用于制定气候变化预测以用于放射性废物地质储存库关闭后放射性影响评估的气候模型类型进行了评论。这些模型包括大气 - 海洋通用环流模型和中等复杂度地球模型。确定了这些模型可获得的相关输出，并考虑了如何利用这些输出为景观发展预测提供信息。还讨论了气候模型输出的空间和时间降尺度问题，以满足局部尺度景观发展建模的要求。给出了一个例子，说明气候变化和景观发展如何影响瑞典核燃料与废物管理公司（SKB）提议在瑞典福什马克建造的乏核燃料深地质处置设施中潜在释放的放射性核素的放射性影响。
