Svensk Kärnbränslehantering AB, Box 250, 101 24, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ambio. 2013 May;42(4):393-401. doi: 10.1007/s13280-013-0406-6.
For a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel planned in Sweden, the safety assessment covers up to 1 million years. Climate scenarios range from high-end global warming for the coming 100 000 years, through deep permafrost, to large ice sheets during glacial conditions. In contrast, in an existing repository for short-lived waste the activity decays to low levels within a few tens of thousands of years. The shorter assessment period, 100 000 years, requires more focus on climate development over the coming tens of thousands of years, including the earliest possibility for permafrost growth and freezing of the engineered system. The handling of climate and climate change in safety assessments must be tailor-made for each repository concept and waste type. However, due to the uncertain future climate development on these vast time scales, all safety assessments for nuclear waste repositories require a range of possible climate scenarios.
对于瑞典计划中的乏核燃料深地质处置库，其安全评估涵盖了长达 100 万年的时间范围。气候情景从未来 10 万年的高全球变暖，到深永久冻土，再到冰川条件下的大冰盖。相比之下，在现有的短寿命废物处置库中，放射性活度在几万年的时间内衰减到低水平。较短的评估期为 10 万年，这需要更关注未来数千年的气候发展，包括最早可能出现的永久冻土生长和工程系统冻结。在安全评估中处理气候和气候变化必须针对每个处置库概念和废物类型进行定制。然而，由于在这些广阔的时间尺度上未来气候发展的不确定性，所有核废物处置库的安全评估都需要一系列可能的气候情景。
