Woli P, Ortiz B V, Buntin D, Flanders K
Department of Crop, Soils & Environmental Sciences, Auburn University, 201 Funchess Hall, Auburn, AL 36849, USA.
Environ Entomol. 2014 Dec;43(6):1641-9. doi: 10.1603/EN14032. Epub 2014 Oct 7.
Climate variability is expected to have an influence on the population of Hessian fly, Mayetiola destructor Say (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), a serious insect pest of winter wheat in the southeastern United States. This study had two objectives: 1) to examine the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Hessian fly infestation and 2) to develop a weather-based Hessian fly infestation model for wheat yield loss prediction. At least 20 years of Hessian fly infestation and wheat yield records from two locations in South Georgia were used for this study. The yearly values of infestation were separated by ENSO phase and tested to assess the infestation differences across ENSO phases. Each year, yield losses from infestation were calculated by subtracting the yields of resistant varieties from those of susceptible ones. The yield losses were then separated by ENSO phase and tested. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to identify the contribution of monthly weather variables and changes in wheat acreage to Hessian fly infestation. Results showed that Hessian fly infestation and yield losses were greatest during the La Niña and least during the El Niño phase. The weather conditions that significantly increased the risk for infestation were those of the August-February period. The risk of infestation was higher during August-September under wetter, cooler conditions and during October-February under drier, warmer conditions. These findings could help wheat growers reduce the risk of infestation in the years that are expected to have more infestation through the adoption of necessary mitigation measures before the crop season.
气候变异性预计会对黑森瘿蚊（Mayetiola destructor Say，双翅目：瘿蚊科）的种群产生影响，黑森瘿蚊是美国东南部冬小麦的一种严重害虫。本研究有两个目标：1）研究厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）对黑森瘿蚊侵染的影响；2）开发一个基于天气的黑森瘿蚊侵染模型，用于预测小麦产量损失。本研究使用了来自佐治亚州南部两个地点至少20年的黑森瘿蚊侵染和小麦产量记录。侵染的年度值按ENSO阶段进行划分，并进行测试以评估不同ENSO阶段的侵染差异。每年，通过从感病品种的产量中减去抗病品种的产量来计算侵染造成的产量损失。然后按ENSO阶段对产量损失进行划分并进行测试。进行多元回归分析，以确定月度天气变量和小麦种植面积变化对黑森瘿蚊侵染的影响。结果表明，在拉尼娜期间黑森瘿蚊侵染和产量损失最大，在厄尔尼诺阶段最小。显著增加侵染风险的天气条件是8月至2月期间的条件。在8月至9月期间，在更湿润、更凉爽的条件下侵染风险较高，在10月至2月期间，在更干燥、更温暖的条件下侵染风险较高。这些发现可以帮助小麦种植者通过在作物季节前采取必要的缓解措施，在预计侵染较多的年份降低侵染风险。
