Yamakita Mitsuya, Uchida Hiroyuki, Kawamura Ken, Homma Takayuki, Odagiri Youichi
College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Kitasato University.
Nihon Koshu Eisei Zasshi. 2014;61(8):371-84.
In the present study, we aimed to clarify the specific effects of age, period, and cohort on trends in obesity rate and energy intake ratio from fat in Japanese adults using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and to evaluate the relationship between changes in obesity rate and energy intake ratio from fat.
We obtained data regarding obesity rate and calorie intake of fat, animal fat, carbohydrate, protein, animal protein, and total energy intake of Japanese adults from the National Nutrition Survey. The data were tabulated for five 10-year age groups (from 20-29 years to 60-69 years) and 17 annual demographic profiles (from 1995 to 2011), with regard to the energy intake ratio. These standard cohort tables were analyzed using a Bayesian APC model.
With regard to obesity rate, the effect of age was the greatest and increased rapidly in the age group of 30-39 years for both genders. Moreover, the period effect consistently increased in men, but had very little variation in women. The cohort effect indicated a reverse of the decreasing trend in the cohorts born after 1962-1971 in men and indicated a reverse of the increasing trend in the cohorts born after 1965-1974 in women. With regard to the energy intake ratio from fat, the trends for the three effects differed from those for obesity rate for both genders. The age effect generally decreased with increasing age. Furthermore, for both genders, the period effect gradually decreased after 1998 and markedly decreased in 2001, remained constant or slightly increased until 2008, and increased thereafter. However, the cohort effect was the greatest among the three, and although a decreasing trend was observed in the cohorts born after 1976-1985 in women, the energy intake from fat increased in the younger cohorts in both genders. The overall effect on energy intake ratio from animal fat had a slope similar to that of the energy intake ratio from fat.
Each effect affected obesity and energy intake ratio from fat in a different manner, suggesting that factors other than energy intake ratio from fat, such as energy expenditure, contributed to the changes in obesity rate. However, obesity risk markedly increased in the age group of 30-39 years, and younger generations had a higher energy intake ratio from fat. These results suggest that dietary guidelines, particularly the optimal intake of animal products, is needed for younger generations to prevent the development of obesity in adulthood.
在本研究中，我们旨在通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（APC）分析，阐明年龄、时期和队列对日本成年人肥胖率趋势及脂肪能量摄入比例的具体影响，并评估肥胖率变化与脂肪能量摄入比例之间的关系。
我们从全国营养调查中获取了日本成年人肥胖率以及脂肪、动物脂肪、碳水化合物、蛋白质、动物蛋白和总能量摄入的卡路里数据。关于能量摄入比例，这些数据按五个10岁年龄组（从20 - 29岁到60 - 69岁）和17个年度人口概况（从1995年到2011年）进行列表。使用贝叶斯APC模型对这些标准队列表进行分析。
关于肥胖率，年龄的影响最大，在30 - 39岁年龄组中，男女肥胖率均迅速上升。此外，男性的时期效应持续增加，而女性的变化很小。队列效应表明，1962 - 1971年后出生队列中男性肥胖率下降趋势逆转，1965 - 1974年后出生队列中女性肥胖率上升趋势逆转。关于脂肪能量摄入比例，男女的三种效应趋势与肥胖率不同。年龄效应一般随年龄增长而下降。此外，对于男女双方，时期效应在1998年后逐渐下降，2001年显著下降，到2008年保持不变或略有上升，此后上升。然而，队列效应在三者中最大，尽管在1976 - 1985年后出生队列中女性脂肪能量摄入呈下降趋势，但男女较年轻队列的脂肪能量摄入均增加。动物脂肪能量摄入比例的总体效应斜率与脂肪能量摄入比例相似。
每种效应以不同方式影响肥胖和脂肪能量摄入比例，这表明除脂肪能量摄入比例外的其他因素，如能量消耗，也对肥胖率变化有影响。然而，30 - 39岁年龄组的肥胖风险显著增加，年轻一代的脂肪能量摄入比例更高。这些结果表明，年轻一代需要饮食指南，特别是动物产品的最佳摄入量，以预防成年期肥胖的发生。
