School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
PLoS One. 2014 Oct 13;9(10):e110208. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0110208. eCollection 2014.
The world is undergoing a rapid health transition, with an ageing population and disease burden increasingly defined by disability. In Sub-Saharan Africa the next 40 years are predicted to see reduced mortality, signalling a surge in the impact of chronic diseases. We modelled these epidemiological changes and associated mental health workforce requirements. Years lived with a disability (YLD) predictions for mental and substance use disorders for each decade from 2010 to 2050 for four Sub-Saharan African regions were calculated using Global Burden of Disease 2010 study (GBD 2010) data and UN population forecasts. Predicted mental health workforce requirements for 2010 and 2050, by region and for selected countries, were modelled using GBD 2010 prevalence estimates and recommended packages of care and staffing ratios for low- and middle-income countries, and compared to current staffing from the WHO Mental Health Atlas. Significant population growth and ageing will result in an estimated 130% increase in the burden of mental and substance use disorders in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, to 45 million YLDs. As a result, the required mental health workforce will increase by 216,600 full time equivalent staff from 2010 to 2050, and far more compared to the existing workforce. The growth in mental and substance use disorders by 2050 is likely to significantly affect health and productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. To reduce this burden, packages of care for key mental disorders should be provided through increasing the mental health workforce towards targets outlined in this paper. This requires a shift from current practice in most African countries, involving substantial investment in the training of primary care practitioners, supported by district based mental health specialist teams using a task sharing model that mobilises local community resources, with the expansion of inpatient psychiatric units based in district and regional general hospitals.
世界正在经历快速的健康转型,人口老龄化和疾病负担日益由残疾定义。在撒哈拉以南非洲,未来 40 年预计死亡率将降低,这表明慢性病的影响将会激增。我们对这些流行病学变化及其相关的心理健康劳动力需求进行了建模。使用全球疾病负担 2010 研究 (GBD 2010) 数据和联合国人口预测,对撒哈拉以南非洲四个地区从 2010 年到 2050 年每个十年的精神和物质使用障碍的残疾调整生命年 (YLD) 进行了预测。使用 GBD 2010 患病率估计和中低收入国家推荐的护理包和人员配备比例,对 2010 年和 2050 年的区域和选定国家的心理健康劳动力需求进行了建模,并与世界卫生组织心理健康地图中的现有人员配备进行了比较。人口的显著增长和老龄化将导致撒哈拉以南非洲地区到 2050 年精神和物质使用障碍的负担估计增加 130%,达到 4500 万 YLD。因此,到 2050 年,心理健康劳动力将需要增加 216600 名全职等效员工,与现有劳动力相比,增加幅度更大。到 2050 年,精神和物质使用障碍的增长可能会对撒哈拉以南非洲的健康和生产力产生重大影响。为了减轻这一负担,应该通过增加心理健康劳动力来提供针对主要精神障碍的护理包,以实现本文概述的目标。这需要从大多数非洲国家目前的做法转变,即大量投资于初级保健从业者的培训,由以任务分担模式运作的以地区为基础的精神卫生专家团队提供支持,该模式调动当地社区资源,并扩大以地区和区域综合医院为基础的住院精神病单位。
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