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元分析:风险决策中的年龄差异:青少年、儿童与成人。

A meta-analysis on age differences in risky decision making: adolescents versus children and adults.

机构信息

Department of Developmental Psychology, Utrecht University.

Behavioural Science Institute, Radboud University Nijmegen.

出版信息

Psychol Bull. 2015 Jan;141(1):48-84. doi: 10.1037/a0038088. Epub 2014 Nov 3.

Abstract

Despite evident heightened adolescent risk-taking in real-life situations, not all experimental studies demonstrate that adolescents take more risks than children and adults on risky decision-making tasks. In the current 4 independent meta-analyses, neurodevelopmental imbalance models and fuzzy trace theory were used as conceptual frameworks to examine whether adolescents engage in more risk-taking than children and adults and whether early adolescents take more risks than children and mid-late adolescents on behavioral risk-taking tasks. Studies with at least 1 of the aforementioned age comparisons met the inclusion criteria. Consistent with imbalance models and fuzzy trace theory, results from a random-effects model showed that adolescents take more risks (g = .37) than adults, and early adolescents take more risks (g = .15) than mid-late adolescents. However, inconsistent with both perspectives, adolescents and children take equal levels of risk (g = -.00), and early adolescents and children also take equal levels of risk (g = .04). Meta-regression analyses revealed that, consistent with imbalance models, (a) adolescents take more risks than adults on hot tasks with immediate outcome feedback on rewards and losses; however, contrary to imbalance models but consistent with fuzzy trace theory, (b) adolescents take fewer risks than children on tasks with a sure/safe option. Shortcomings related to studies using behavioral risk-taking tasks are discussed. We suggest a hybrid developmental neuroecological model of risk-taking that includes a risk opportunity component to explain why adolescents take more risks than children in the real world but equal levels of risks as children in the laboratory.

摘要

尽管在现实生活中明显存在青少年冒险行为增加的情况,但并非所有实验研究都表明,青少年在风险决策任务上比儿童和成年人更冒险。在当前的 4 项独立的荟萃分析中,神经发育失衡模型和模糊痕迹理论被用作概念框架,以检验青少年是否比儿童和成年人更冒险,以及早期青少年是否比儿童和中晚期青少年在行为风险任务上更冒险。符合上述年龄比较之一的研究符合纳入标准。与失衡模型和模糊痕迹理论一致,随机效应模型的结果表明,青少年比成年人更冒险(g =.37),早期青少年比中晚期青少年更冒险(g =.15)。然而,与这两种观点都不一致的是,青少年和儿童的风险水平相等(g = -.00),早期青少年和儿童的风险水平也相等(g =.04)。元回归分析表明,与失衡模型一致,(a)青少年在具有即时奖励和损失反馈的热点任务上比成年人更冒险;然而,与失衡模型相反但与模糊痕迹理论一致,(b)青少年在具有确定/安全选项的任务上比儿童更冒险。讨论了与使用行为风险任务相关的研究的局限性。我们建议采用一种风险承担的混合发展神经生态学模型,其中包括风险机会成分,以解释为什么青少年在现实世界中比儿童更冒险,但在实验室中与儿童的风险水平相等。

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