Hanson Heidi A, Smith Ken R, Stroup Antoinette M, Harrell C Janna
a University of Utah.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2015;69(1):7-22. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2014.958192. Epub 2014 Nov 14.
We used age-period-cohort (APC) analyses to describe the simultaneous effects of age, period, and cohort on cancer incidence rates in an attempt to understand the population dynamics underlying their patterns among those aged 85+. Data from the Utah Cancer Registry (UCR), the US Census, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) programme were used to generate age-specific estimates of cancer incidence at ages 65-99 from 1973 to 2002 for Utah. Our results showed increasing cancer incidence rates up to the 85-89 age group followed by declines at ages 90-99 when not confounded by the separate influences of period and cohort effects. We found significant period and cohort effects, suggesting the role of environmental mechanisms in cancer incidence trends between the ages of 85 and 100.
我们采用年龄-时期-队列（APC）分析来描述年龄、时期和队列对癌症发病率的同时影响，旨在了解85岁及以上人群中这些模式背后的人口动态。利用犹他州癌症登记处（UCR）、美国人口普查局、国家卫生统计中心（NCHS）以及美国国家癌症研究所的监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）项目的数据，生成了1973年至2002年犹他州65 - 99岁人群特定年龄的癌症发病率估计值。我们的结果显示，在不受到时期和队列效应单独影响的情况下，癌症发病率在85 - 89岁年龄组之前呈上升趋势，随后在90 - 99岁时下降。我们发现了显著的时期和队列效应，这表明环境机制在85岁至100岁之间的癌症发病率趋势中发挥了作用。
