Department of Cancer Biology, Beckman Research Institute, City of Hope, Duarte, CA, 91010, USA.
Department of Biostatistics, Beckman Research Institute, City of Hope, Duarte, CA, 91010, USA.
Sci Rep. 2019 Aug 19;9(1):12070. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-48445-1.
The "baby boomers" born in 1946-1964 in the United States (U.S.) started to reach the age of 65 in 2011, rapidly accelerating U.S. population aging. There are great public concerns about its impact on health care with anticipation of rising cancer incidences. We examined the incidences and deaths of leukemia and overall cancer in the U.S. from 1998 to 2018. The acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) incidences remained constant prior to 2011 but have climbed up substantially since then, and the chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) incidence has increased continuously since 1998. The significant increase of myeloid leukemia and CLL incidences was strongly correlated with the U.S. population aging. The incidence of all cancers was increased in correlation with a small increase in aging population prior to 2011, but surprisingly has changed marginally since 2011, which was not significantly correlated with the accelerated population aging. We observed the most substantial decline of deaths with CML, whereas AML deaths continued to rise in the past 20 years. In conclusion, the overall cancer incidence was not increased as fast as previously feared with aging Americans; however, the incidences of myeloid leukemia and CLL significantly outpaced that of all cancers.
1946-1964 年出生于美国的“婴儿潮一代”于 2011 年开始达到 65 岁，这迅速加速了美国人口老龄化。人们普遍担心这会对医疗保健产生影响，预计癌症发病率会上升。我们研究了 1998 年至 2018 年美国白血病和所有癌症的发病率和死亡率。急性髓细胞白血病（AML）和慢性髓细胞白血病（CML）的发病率在 2011 年之前保持不变，但此后大幅上升，慢性淋巴细胞白血病（CLL）的发病率自 1998 年以来持续上升。髓性白血病和 CLL 发病率的显著增加与美国人口老龄化密切相关。所有癌症的发病率与 2011 年前人口老龄化的少量增加相关联，但自 2011 年以来变化不大，与人口老龄化的加速没有显著相关性。我们观察到 CML 的死亡率下降幅度最大，而 AML 的死亡率在过去 20 年中持续上升。总之，随着美国老年人的老龄化，总体癌症发病率并没有像之前担心的那样迅速上升；然而，髓性白血病和 CLL 的发病率明显超过了所有癌症。
