Storelvmo T, Boos W R, Herger N
Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, 210 Whitney Avenue, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, 210 Whitney Avenue, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2014 Dec 28;372(2031). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0116.
Climate engineering, the intentional alteration of Earth's climate, is a multifaceted and controversial topic. Numerous climate engineering mechanisms (CEMs) have been proposed, and the efficacies and potential undesired consequences of some of them have been studied in the safe environments of numerical models. Here, we present a global modelling study of a so far understudied CEM, namely the seeding of cirrus clouds to reduce their lifetimes in the upper troposphere, and hence their greenhouse effect. Different from most CEMs, the intention of cirrus seeding is not to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. This particular CEM rather targets the greenhouse effect, by reducing the trapping of infrared radiation by high clouds. This avoids some of the caveats that have been identified for solar radiation management, for example, the delayed recovery of stratospheric ozone or drastic changes to Earth's hydrological cycle. We find that seeding of mid- and high-latitude cirrus clouds has the potential to cool the planet by about 1.4 K, and that this cooling is accompanied by only a modest reduction in rainfall. Intriguingly, seeding of the 15% of the globe with the highest solar noon zenith angles at any given time yields the same global mean cooling as a seeding strategy that involves 45% of the globe. In either case, the cooling is strongest at high latitudes, and could therefore serve to prevent Arctic sea ice loss. With the caveat that there are still significant uncertainties associated with ice nucleation in cirrus clouds and its representation in climate models, cirrus seeding appears to represent a powerful CEM with reduced side effects.
气候工程,即对地球气候进行有意改变,是一个多方面且颇具争议的话题。人们已经提出了众多气候工程机制(CEMs),并且其中一些机制的功效和潜在不良后果已在数值模型的安全环境中得到研究。在此,我们展示了一项针对一种迄今研究较少的气候工程机制的全球建模研究,即对卷云进行播撒以缩短其在对流层上部的寿命,从而降低其温室效应。与大多数气候工程机制不同,卷云播撒的目的不是减少到达地球表面的太阳辐射量。这种特定的气候工程机制而是通过减少高云对红外辐射的截留来针对温室效应。这避免了一些已被确定为太阳辐射管理存在的问题,例如平流层臭氧恢复延迟或地球水文循环的剧烈变化。我们发现,对中高纬度卷云进行播撒有使地球降温约1.4K的潜力,而且这种降温仅伴随着降雨量的适度减少。有趣的是,在任何给定时间对全球太阳正午天顶角最高的15%区域进行播撒所产生的全球平均降温效果,与涉及全球45%区域的播撒策略相同。在这两种情况下,高纬度地区的降温最为显著,因此可以用来防止北极海冰消融。需要说明的是,卷云中的冰核形成及其在气候模型中的表现仍存在重大不确定性,但卷云播撒似乎是一种副作用较小的强大气候工程机制。