Peeters Anna, Gearon Emma, Backholer Kathryn, Carstensen Bendix
Obesity and Population Health, Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Australia.
Obesity and Population Health, Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Australia.
Ann Epidemiol. 2015 Jan;25(1):26-33. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2014.10.008. Epub 2014 Oct 16.
We analyzed the changes in the body mass index (BMI) distribution for urban Australian adults between 1980 and 2007.
We used data from participants of six consecutive Australian nation-wide surveys with measured weight and height between 1980 and 2007. We used quantile regression to estimate mean BMI (for percentiles of BMI) and prevalence of severe obesity, modeled by natural splines in age, date of birth, and survey date.
Since 1980, the right skew in the BMI distribution for Australian adults has increased greatly for men and women, driven by increases in skew associated with age and birth cohort/period. Between 1980 and 2007, the average 5-year increase in BMI was 1 kg/m(2) (0.8) for the 95th percentile of BMI in women (men). The increase in the median was about a third of this, and for the 10th percentile, a fifth of this. We estimated that for the cohort born in 1960 around 31% of men and women were obese by age 50 years compared with 11% of the 1930 birth cohort.
There have been large increases in the right skew of the BMI distribution for urban Australian adults between 1980 and 2007, and birth cohort effects suggests similar increases are likely to continue.
我们分析了1980年至2007年间澳大利亚城市成年人体重指数（BMI）分布的变化情况。
我们使用了来自澳大利亚连续六次全国性调查参与者的数据，这些参与者在1980年至2007年间测量了体重和身高。我们使用分位数回归来估计平均BMI（针对BMI百分位数）和重度肥胖的患病率，并通过年龄、出生日期和调查日期的自然样条进行建模。
自1980年以来，澳大利亚成年男性和女性BMI分布的右偏态大幅增加，这是由与年龄和出生队列/时期相关的偏态增加所驱动的。在1980年至2007年间，女性（男性）BMI第95百分位数的平均5年增幅为1 kg/m²（0.8）。中位数的增幅约为此增幅的三分之一，而第10百分位数的增幅为五分之一。我们估计，出生于1960年的队列中，约31%的男性和女性在50岁时肥胖，而出生于1930年队列的这一比例为11%。
1980年至2007年间，澳大利亚城市成年人体重指数分布的右偏态大幅增加，出生队列效应表明类似的增加可能会持续。
