Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA; Wildlife and Fisheries Conservation Center, Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Connecticut, 1376 Storrs Road Unit 4087, Storrs, CT 06269-4087, USA.
Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
J Environ Manage. 2015 Feb 1;149:157-67. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.10.010. Epub 2014 Nov 7.
Climate change may impact forest management activities with important implications for forest ecosystems. However, most climate change research on forests has focused on climate-driven shifts in species ranges, forest carbon, and hydrology. To examine how climate change may alter timber harvesting and forest operations in north temperate forests, we asked: 1) How have winter conditions changed over the past 60 years? 2) Have changes in winter weather altered timber harvest patterns on public forestlands? 3) What are the implications of changes in winter weather conditions for timber harvest operations in the context of the economic, ecological, and social goals of forest management? Using meteorological information from Climate Data Online and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models we document substantial changes in winter conditions in Wisconsin, including a two- to three-week shortening of frozen ground conditions from 1948 to 2012. Increases in minimum and mean soil temperatures were spatially heterogeneous. Analysis of timber harvest records identified a shift toward greater harvest of jack pine and red pine and less harvest of aspen, black spruce, hemlock, red maple, and white spruce in years with less frozen ground or snow duration. Interviews suggested that frozen ground is a mediating condition that enables low-impact timber harvesting. Climate change may alter frozen ground conditions with complex implications for forest management.
气候变化可能会影响森林管理活动，对森林生态系统产生重要影响。然而，大多数关于森林的气候变化研究都集中在物种分布、森林碳和水文学方面的气候驱动变化上。为了研究气候变化如何改变北温带森林的木材采伐和森林作业，我们提出了以下三个问题：1）过去 60 年来冬季条件发生了怎样的变化？2）冬季天气变化是否改变了公有林地上的木材采伐模式？3）在森林管理的经济、生态和社会目标背景下，冬季天气条件变化对木材采伐作业有哪些影响？我们利用 Climate Data Online 中的气象信息和自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型，记录了威斯康星州冬季条件的重大变化，包括从 1948 年到 2012 年，冻结地面条件缩短了两到三周。最低和平均土壤温度的增加在空间上是不均匀的。对木材采伐记录的分析表明，在冻结地面或积雪持续时间较短的年份，更倾向于采伐火炬松和红松，而减少了对白桦、黑云杉、铁杉、红枫和白云杉的采伐。访谈表明，冻结地面是一种中介条件，它可以实现低影响的木材采伐。气候变化可能会改变冻结地面条件，对森林管理产生复杂的影响。
