Simon-Cornu M, Beaugelin-Seiller K, Boyer P, Calmon P, Garcia-Sanchez L, Mourlon C, Nicoulaud V, Sy M, Gonze M A
Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), PRP-ENV, SERIS, LM2E, Cadarache, France.
Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), PRP-ENV, SERIS, LM2E, Cadarache, France.
J Environ Radioact. 2015 Jan;139:91-102. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2014.09.014. Epub 2014 Oct 26.
SYMBIOSE is a modelling platform that accounts for variability and uncertainty in radiological impact assessments, when simulating the environmental fate of radionuclides and assessing doses to human populations. The default database of SYMBIOSE is partly based on parameter values that are summarized within International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) documents. To characterize uncertainty on the transfer parameters, 331 Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) were defined from the summary statistics provided within the IAEA documents (i.e. sample size, minimal and maximum values, arithmetic and geometric means, standard and geometric standard deviations) and are made available as spreadsheet files. The methods used to derive the PDFs without complete data sets, but merely the summary statistics, are presented. Then, a simple case-study illustrates the use of the database in a second-order Monte Carlo calculation, separating parametric uncertainty and inter-individual variability.
SYMBIOSE是一个建模平台，在模拟放射性核素的环境归宿和评估人群剂量时，该平台可考虑放射学影响评估中的变异性和不确定性。SYMBIOSE的默认数据库部分基于国际原子能机构（IAEA）文件中汇总的参数值。为了描述转移参数的不确定性，根据IAEA文件中提供的汇总统计数据（即样本大小、最小值和最大值、算术平均值和几何平均值、标准偏差和几何标准偏差）定义了331个概率分布函数（PDF），并以电子表格文件的形式提供。本文介绍了在没有完整数据集而仅有汇总统计数据的情况下推导PDF的方法。然后，一个简单的案例研究说明了该数据库在二阶蒙特卡罗计算中的使用，将参数不确定性和个体间变异性区分开来。
