Wielgus Robert B, Peebles Kaylie A
Large Carnivore Conservation Laboratory, School of Environment, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2014 Dec 3;9(12):e113505. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0113505. eCollection 2014.
Predator control and sport hunting are often used to reduce predator populations and livestock depredations, but the efficacy of lethal control has rarely been tested. We assessed the effects of wolf mortality on reducing livestock depredations in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming from 1987-2012 using a 25 year time series. The number of livestock depredated, livestock populations, wolf population estimates, number of breeding pairs, and wolves killed were calculated for the wolf-occupied area of each state for each year. The data were then analyzed using a negative binomial generalized linear model to test for the expected negative relationship between the number of livestock depredated in the current year and the number of wolves controlled the previous year. We found that the number of livestock depredated was positively associated with the number of livestock and the number of breeding pairs. However, we also found that the number of livestock depredated the following year was positively, not negatively, associated with the number of wolves killed the previous year. The odds of livestock depredations increased 4% for sheep and 5-6% for cattle with increased wolf control--up until wolf mortality exceeded the mean intrinsic growth rate of wolves at 25%. Possible reasons for the increased livestock depredations at ≤25% mortality may be compensatory increased breeding pairs and numbers of wolves following increased mortality. After mortality exceeded 25%, the total number of breeding pairs, wolves, and livestock depredations declined. However, mortality rates exceeding 25% are unsustainable over the long term. Lethal control of individual depredating wolves may sometimes necessary to stop depredations in the near-term, but we recommend that non-lethal alternatives also be considered.
捕食者控制和狩猎运动常被用于减少捕食者数量以及牲畜被捕食的情况,但致死性控制的效果却很少得到验证。我们利用一个25年的时间序列,评估了1987年至2012年期间狼的死亡对爱达荷州、蒙大拿州和怀俄明州减少牲畜被捕食情况的影响。计算了每年每个州狼所占据区域内牲畜被捕食的数量、牲畜数量、狼的种群估计数、繁殖对数以及被杀死的狼的数量。然后使用负二项式广义线性模型对数据进行分析,以检验当年牲畜被捕食数量与前一年被控制的狼的数量之间预期的负相关关系。我们发现,牲畜被捕食的数量与牲畜数量和繁殖对数呈正相关。然而,我们还发现,次年牲畜被捕食的数量与前一年被杀死的狼的数量呈正相关,而非负相关。随着对狼的控制增加,绵羊牲畜被捕食的几率增加了4%,牛增加了5 - 6%,直到狼的死亡率超过狼的平均内在增长率25%。在死亡率≤25%时牲畜被捕食增加的可能原因,或许是死亡率增加后繁殖对数和狼的数量出现了补偿性增长。死亡率超过25%后,繁殖对数、狼的总数以及牲畜被捕食的数量都下降了。然而,超过25%的死亡率从长期来看是不可持续的。在短期内,有时可能需要对个别捕食牲畜的狼进行致死性控制以阻止捕食行为,但我们建议也应考虑非致死性替代方法。
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