Liu June, Fordham Damien A, Cooke Brian D, Cox Tarnya, Mutze Greg, Strive Tanja
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Ecosystem Sciences Division, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia; Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.
The Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.
PLoS One. 2014 Dec 8;9(12):e113976. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0113976. eCollection 2014.
Australia relies heavily on rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) for the biological control of introduced European wild rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus, which are significant economic and environmental pests. An endemic non-pathogenic rabbit calicivirus termed RCV-A1 also occurs in wild rabbits in Australian and provides partial protection against lethal RHDV infection, thus interfering with effective rabbit control. Despite its obvious importance for rabbit population management, little is known about the epidemiology of this benign rabbit calicivirus.
We determined the continent-wide distribution and prevalence of RCV-A1 by analysing 1,805 serum samples from wild rabbit populations at 78 sites across Australia for the presence of antibodies to RCV-A1 using a serological test that specifically detects RCV-A1 antibodies and does not cross-react with co-occurring RHDV antibodies. We also investigated possible correlation between climate variables and prevalence of RCV-A1 by using generalised linear mixed effect models.
Antibodies to RCV-A1 were predominantly detected in rabbit populations in cool, high rainfall areas of the south-east and south-west of the continent. There was strong support for modelling RCV-A1 prevalence as a function of average annual rainfall and minimum temperature. The best ranked model explained 26% of the model structural deviance. According to this model, distribution and prevalence of RCV-A1 is positively correlated with periods of above average rainfall and negatively correlated with periods of drought.
Our statistical model of RCV-A1 prevalence will greatly increase our understanding of RCV-A1 epidemiology and its interaction with RHDV in Australia. By defining the environmental conditions associated with the prevalence of RCV-A1, it also contributes towards understanding the distribution of similar viruses in New Zealand and Europe.
澳大利亚严重依赖兔出血症病毒（RHDV）对引入的欧洲野兔穴兔进行生物防治，欧洲野兔是重要的经济和环境害虫。一种地方性非致病性兔杯状病毒，称为RCV - A1，也在澳大利亚的野兔中出现，并对致命的RHDV感染提供部分保护，从而干扰了有效的野兔控制。尽管其对野兔种群管理具有明显重要性，但对这种良性兔杯状病毒的流行病学了解甚少。
我们通过使用一种专门检测RCV - A1抗体且不与同时存在的RHDV抗体发生交叉反应的血清学检测方法，分析来自澳大利亚78个地点的野兔种群的1805份血清样本中RCV - A1抗体的存在情况，确定了RCV - A1在整个大陆的分布和流行情况。我们还使用广义线性混合效应模型研究了气候变量与RCV - A1流行率之间的可能相关性。
RCV - A1抗体主要在澳大利亚大陆东南部和西南部凉爽、高降雨地区的野兔种群中检测到。有充分的证据支持将RCV - A1流行率建模为年平均降雨量和最低温度的函数。排名最佳的模型解释了模型结构偏差的26%。根据该模型，RCV - A1的分布和流行率与降雨量高于平均水平的时期呈正相关，与干旱时期呈负相关。
我们关于RCV - A1流行率的统计模型将极大地增进我们对澳大利亚RCV - A1流行病学及其与RHDV相互作用的理解。通过确定与RCV - A1流行率相关的环境条件，它也有助于理解新西兰和欧洲类似病毒的分布情况。
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