Lamouroux David, Nagler Jan, Geisel Theo, Eule Stephan
Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen 37077, Germany.
Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen 37077, Germany Computational Physics, IfB, ETH Zurich, Zurich 8093, Switzerland.
Proc Biol Sci. 2015 Feb 7;282(1800):20142805. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2014.2805.
Spatial heterogeneity of a host population of mobile agents has been shown to be a crucial determinant of many aspects of disease dynamics, ranging from the proliferation of diseases to their persistence and to vaccination strategies. In addition, the importance of regional and structural differences grows in our modern world. Little is known, though, about the consequences when traits of a disease vary regionally. In this paper, we study the effect of a spatially varying per capita infection rate on the behaviour of livestock diseases. We show that the prevalence of an infectious livestock disease in a community of animals can paradoxically decrease owing to transport connections to other communities in which the risk of infection is higher. We study the consequences for the design of livestock transportation restriction measures and establish exact criteria to discriminate those connections that increase the level of infection in the community from those that decrease it.
移动主体宿主种群的空间异质性已被证明是疾病动态诸多方面的关键决定因素，从疾病的传播到其持续存在以及疫苗接种策略。此外，在现代世界中，区域和结构差异的重要性日益凸显。然而，对于疾病特征在区域上存在差异时的后果却知之甚少。在本文中，我们研究了人均感染率的空间变化对家畜疾病行为的影响。我们表明，由于与其他感染风险更高的社区存在运输联系，动物群落中传染性家畜疾病的流行率可能会反常地降低。我们研究了家畜运输限制措施设计的后果，并确立了精确的标准，以区分那些会增加社区感染水平的联系与那些会降低感染水平的联系。
