Sedda Luigi, Morley David, Brown Heidi E
Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St. Mary's Campus, London, W2 1PG, UK.
Ecohealth. 2015 Sep;12(3):461-7. doi: 10.1007/s10393-014-1008-x. Epub 2015 Jan 1.
Bluetongue is a Culicoides-borne viral disease of livestock. In 2006, northern Europe experienced a major outbreak of this disease with devastating effects on the livestock industry. The outbreak quickly spread over the region, primarily affecting cattle and sheep. A previous analysis of the role of vector flight and wind in the spread of this virus across northern Europe indicated that infection at 1,326 (65%) of the reported infected farms could be traced back to just 599 (29%) farms (wind-infective farms). Rather than focusing on presence or absence of vectors or difference between infected and non-infected farms, we investigate the zoological and environmental characteristics of these 599 wind-infective farms (which can be thought of as super-spreaders) in order to characterize what makes them distinct from non-infective farms. Differences in temperature, precipitation, and the density of sheep at individual farms were identified between these two groups. These environmental and zoological factors are known to affect vector abundance and may have promoted bluetongue virus transmission. Identifying such ecological differences can help in the description and quantification of relative risk in affected areas.
蓝舌病是一种由库蠓传播的家畜病毒性疾病。2006年,北欧经历了该病的一次大爆发,对畜牧业造成了毁灭性影响。疫情迅速蔓延至整个地区,主要影响牛和羊。此前一项关于媒介飞行和风力在该病毒于北欧传播中作用的分析表明,在报告的受感染农场中,1326个(65%)农场的感染可追溯至仅599个(29%)农场(风力感染农场)。我们并未关注媒介的有无或感染农场与未感染农场之间的差异,而是调查这599个风力感染农场(可视为超级传播者)的动物学和环境特征,以确定使其有别于非感染农场的因素。在这两组农场之间,发现了温度、降水量以及各农场绵羊密度的差异。已知这些环境和动物学因素会影响媒介数量,可能促进了蓝舌病病毒的传播。识别此类生态差异有助于描述和量化受影响地区的相对风险。