Sims J, Witte J J
J Fla Med Assoc. 1989 Aug;76(8):715-9.
The surveillance of clinical cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the United States began in June 1981 when the first case was reported. Since then, state and federal public health officials have continuously monitored progression of the epidemic by the number of persons reported with diagnosed clinical AIDS. The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes AIDS was identified in 1983 and an antibody test was licensed by the Food and Drug Administration in 1985. Recent studies have shown that the time from HIV infection to development of clinical AIDS is an average of seven or more years. Consequently, the reported cases of clinical AIDS reflect the severity of the epidemic an average of seven years ago or more, not now, and certainly not in the future. The AIDS epidemic is in reality an HIV epidemic. The number of persons with HIV infections is a better measure of the present status and future course of the disease. This paper discusses the development of HIV prevalence and incidence studies and illustrates the use of these data to predict the future number of persons with clinical AIDS and the economic impact of the epidemic.
美国对获得性免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病）临床病例的监测始于1981年6月，当时报告了首例病例。从那时起，州和联邦公共卫生官员通过报告的确诊临床艾滋病病例数持续监测该流行病的发展情况。导致艾滋病的人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）于1983年被发现，1985年食品药品监督管理局批准了一项抗体检测。最近的研究表明，从感染HIV到发展为临床艾滋病的时间平均为七年或更长时间。因此，报告的临床艾滋病病例反映的是平均七年前或更早时候该流行病的严重程度，而非现在，当然更不是未来的情况。艾滋病疫情实际上是HIV疫情。感染HIV的人数是衡量该疾病当前状况和未来发展趋势的更好指标。本文讨论了HIV流行率和发病率研究的发展，并举例说明了如何利用这些数据预测未来临床艾滋病患者的数量以及该流行病的经济影响。
