Xu Jianling, Ding Yi
Center for Food Security and Strategic Studies of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics/Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Grain Circulation and Safety of Jiangsu Province, Mail box no. 31#, 128 Tielu Rd. (North), Nanjing, Jiangsu Province 210003, P.R, China.
J Food Sci. 2015 Jan;80(1):R1-9. doi: 10.1111/1750-3841.12649.
Analyzing the early warning of food security, this paper sets the self-sufficiency rate as the principal indicator in a standpoint of supplement. It is common to use the quantitative methods to forecast and warning the insecurity. However, this paper considers more about the probable outcome when the government intervenes. By constructing the causal feedbacks among grain supplement, demand, productive input, and the policy factors to simulate the future food security in Jiangsu province, conclusions can be drawn as the following: (1) The situation of food security is insecure if the self-sufficiency rate is under 68.3% according to the development of system inertia. (2) it is difficult to guarantee the food security in Jiangsu just depending on the increase of grain sown area. (3) The valid solution to ensure the food security in Jiangsu is to improve the productivity.
本文通过分析粮食安全预警，从补给角度将自给率设定为主要指标。运用定量方法预测和预警粮食不安全状况较为常见。然而，本文更多地考虑了政府干预可能产生的结果。通过构建粮食补给、需求、生产投入和政策因素之间的因果反馈关系，模拟江苏省未来的粮食安全状况，可得出以下结论：（1）根据系统惯性发展，如果自给率低于68.3%，粮食安全状况则不安全。（2）仅依靠增加粮食播种面积难以保障江苏省的粮食安全。（3）确保江苏省粮食安全的有效解决办法是提高生产力。
