Beijing Key Laboratory of Megaregions Sustainable Development Modelling, School of Urban Economics and Public Administration, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China.
Technology Innovation Center of Land Engineering, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100035, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Feb 15;20(4):3434. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20043434.
As a vital part of sustainable development, food security is challenged by prolonged and concurrent pressures. Efforts have long been devoted to balance grain production across China as a whole, and thereby the uncertainties and underlying crisis in the regional grain-producing systems are hidden. In this study, we characterize the dynamic evolution of 357 cities and explore the dominant supply and demand effects to signal early warnings of grain insecurity. Our results show that 220 cities are in unsustainable grain supply-demand conditions in comparison with 10 years ago. Additionally, the south and southwest of China have experienced enlarged disparities and more severe grain insecurity. The dual effects from both increased population and decreased grain output are substantially responsible for the unsustainable grain-producing system on the city scale. Moreover, cities identified as having grain insecurity occupy high-quality cultivated land, including 55.4% of top-grade land, 49.8% of high-grade land, and only 28.9% of low-grade land. We consequently inform the incongruity between grain productivity and regional grain conditions. It is suggested that current intensive management of cultivation and the strategy of differentiated responsibilities in grain production should be based on environmental sustainability and a degree of self-sufficiency across the region.
作为可持续发展的重要组成部分，粮食安全受到长期和并发压力的挑战。长期以来，人们一直致力于平衡中国整体的粮食生产，从而隐藏了区域粮食生产系统的不确定性和潜在危机。在本研究中，我们刻画了 357 个城市的动态演变，并探讨了主导的供需效应，以发出粮食不安全的早期预警。研究结果表明，与 10 年前相比，有 220 个城市的粮食供需状况处于不可持续状态。此外，中国南方和西南地区的差距扩大，粮食不安全状况更加严重。人口增加和粮食产量减少的双重效应，是城市粮食生产系统不可持续的主要原因。此外，被确定为存在粮食不安全的城市占用了优质耕地，包括 55.4%的顶级耕地、49.8%的高级耕地和仅 28.9%的低级耕地。因此，我们揭示了粮食生产力与区域粮食状况之间的不匹配。建议在基于环境可持续性和区域自给程度的基础上，对耕地进行集约管理，并实施差异化的粮食生产责任战略。
