Zhang Yong, Bielory Leonard, Cai Ting, Mi Zhongyuan, Georgopoulos Panos
Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI), Rutgers University, 170 Frelinghuysen Rd., Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA ; Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, Rutgers University - Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA ; Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Rutgers University, 98 Brett Rd., Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA.
Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI), Rutgers University, 170 Frelinghuysen Rd., Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA ; Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, 14 College Farm Rd., New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA ; Department of Medicine, Section of Allergy and Immunology, Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA.
Atmos Environ (1994). 2015 Feb;103:297-306. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.12.019.
Allergenic pollen is one of the main triggers of Allergic Airway Disease (AAD) affecting 5% to 30% of the population in industrialized countries. A modeling framework has been developed using correlation and collinearity analyses, simulated annealing, and stepwise regression based on nationwide observations of airborne pollen counts and climatic factors to predict the onsets and durations of allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass in the contiguous United States. Main factors considered are monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperatures and accumulative precipitations, latitude, elevation, Growing Degree Day (GDD), Frost Free Day (FFD), Start Date (SD) and Season Length (SL) in the previous year. The estimated mean SD and SL for birch (), oak (), ragweed (), mugwort () and grass () pollen season in 1994-2010 are mostly within 0 to 6 days of the corresponding observations for the majority of the National Allergy Bureau (NAB) monitoring stations across the contiguous US. The simulated spatially resolved maps for onset and duration of allergenic pollen season in the contiguous US are consistent with the long term observations.
致敏花粉是变应性气道疾病（AAD）的主要触发因素之一，在工业化国家影响着5%至30%的人口。利用相关性和共线性分析、模拟退火以及基于美国全国范围内空气中花粉计数和气候因素的逐步回归，开发了一个建模框架，以预测美国本土代表性树木、杂草和草类致敏花粉季节的开始时间和持续时间。考虑的主要因素包括月平均、季节平均和年平均温度以及累积降水量、纬度、海拔、生长度日（GDD）、无霜日（FFD）、上一年的开始日期（SD）和季节长度（SL）。1994 - 2010年期间，桦树（）、橡树（）、豚草（）、艾蒿（）和草（）花粉季节的估计平均SD和SL，在美国本土大多数国家过敏局（NAB）监测站中，大多在相应观测值的0至6天范围内。美国本土致敏花粉季节开始时间和持续时间的模拟空间分辨率地图与长期观测结果一致。
