Smith James P, Strauss John, Zhao Yaohui
Ph.D., Chair in Labor Market and Demographic Studies, RAND Corporation, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138. Tel: (310) 451-6925.
Ph.D., Professor, Department of Economics and School of Gerontology, University of Southern California, California, USA.
J Econ Ageing. 2014 Dec;4:37-43. doi: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.006.
China has aged rapidly and the rate is accelerating in decades to come. We review positive and negative forces for healthy aging in China now and in the future. The most positive force is the spectacular growth in education over time especially for Chinese women, which should improve all dimensions of cognitive and physical health and eliminate vast gender disparities in healthy aging that currently exist. Other positive forces include increasing detection and treatment of disease and the availability of health insurance and health services so that diseases like hypertension and diabetes do not remain silent killers in China. Transparency is eased on the research level by publicly available data such as CHARLS, a sharp departure from prior scientific norm in China. Negative forces center on disturbing trends in personal health behaviors such as growing rates of smoking (among men) and obesity (for both genders), and pollution-,especially in urban centers. Public health campaigns and incentives are needed on all these fronts so that predictable long-term consequences of these behaviors on older age disease are not realized. There will not be a simple demographic fix to healthy aging in China as fertility rates are unlikely to rise much, while migration will likely continue to rise leaving growing numbers of elderly parents geographically separated from their adult children. Government policy will have to allow migration of elderly parents to live with their adult children while reducing the rigid connection of policy (health insurance and health services) with place of residence.
中国老龄化进程迅速,且在未来几十年还将加速。我们审视了当下及未来中国健康老龄化的积极和消极因素。最积极的因素是随着时间推移教育水平显著提高,尤其是中国女性的教育水平,这应能改善认知和身体健康的各个方面,并消除目前在健康老龄化方面存在的巨大性别差异。其他积极因素包括疾病检测和治疗的增加,以及医疗保险和医疗服务的可及性,这样高血压和糖尿病等疾病在中国就不会再是无声的杀手。像中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)这样的公开数据在研究层面提高了透明度,这与中国以前的科学规范有很大不同。消极因素集中在个人健康行为令人不安的趋势上,比如吸烟率上升(男性群体)和肥胖率上升(男女皆有),以及污染问题,尤其是在城市中心。在所有这些方面都需要开展公共卫生运动并提供激励措施,以免这些行为对老年疾病造成可预见的长期后果。由于生育率不太可能大幅上升,而移民可能会继续增加,导致越来越多的老年父母与成年子女在地理上分离,因此中国的健康老龄化不会有简单的人口统计学解决办法。政府政策必须允许老年父母迁移去与成年子女同住,同时减少政策(医疗保险和医疗服务)与居住地的严格关联。