Gerst-Emerson Kerstin, Wong Rebeca, Michaels-Obregon Alejandra, Palloni Alberto
Institute of Gerontology, Department of Health Policy and Management, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia
Sealy Center on Aging, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas.
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2015 Sep;70(5):759-68. doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbu185. Epub 2015 Jan 29.
Little is known about how exposure to a combination of infectious and chronic conditions throughout the lifecourse could impact disability in old age. This paper compares 2 cohorts of adults who have aged under very different country contexts by contrasting disability transitions among elders in Mexico with elders in the United States.
Data comes from the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) and the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Estimated probabilities of 2-year transitions among disability states and mortality are presented for adults aged 50 and older.
The levels of disability prevalence and 2 year transitions are consistent with a higher rate of disability for the United States compared to Mexico. In 2-year transitions, the U.S. sample was more likely to transition to a disabled state or increase the number of disabilities than the Mexican counterparts, while Mexicans are more likely to move out of disability or reduce the number of disabilities reported.
The findings suggest that the current rate of disability in old age is lower for a less developed country compared with a developed society. We discuss implications, possible explanations, and likely future scenarios.
对于一生中暴露于传染病和慢性病的组合如何影响老年残疾情况，我们知之甚少。本文通过对比墨西哥老年人与美国老年人的残疾转变情况，比较了在截然不同的国家背景下变老的两组成年人队列。
数据来自墨西哥健康与老龄化研究（MHAS）和美国健康与退休研究（HRS）。呈现了50岁及以上成年人在残疾状态和死亡率之间的两年转变估计概率。
与墨西哥相比，美国的残疾患病率水平和两年转变情况表明其残疾率更高。在两年转变中，美国样本比墨西哥样本更有可能转变为残疾状态或增加残疾数量，而墨西哥人更有可能摆脱残疾或减少报告的残疾数量。
研究结果表明，与发达社会相比，欠发达国家目前的老年残疾率较低。我们讨论了其中的影响、可能的解释以及未来可能的情况。
