关于埃博拉病毒的隔离期。
On the quarantine period for ebola virus.
作者信息
Haas Charles N
机构信息
Departmetn of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
出版信息
PLoS Curr. 2014 Oct 14;6:ecurrents.outbreaks.2ab4b76ba7263ff0f084766e43abbd89. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.2ab4b76ba7263ff0f084766e43abbd89.
BACKGROUND
21 days has been regarded as the appropriate quarantine period for holding individuals potentially exposed to Ebola Virus (EV) to reduce risk of contagion. There does not appear to be a systematic discussion of the basis for this period.
METHODS
The prior estimates for incubation time to EV were examined, along with data on the first 9 months of the current outbreak. These provided estimates of the distribution of incubation times.
RESULTS
A 21 day period for quarantine may result in the release of individuals with a 0.2 - 12% risk of release prior to full opportunity for the incubation to proceed. It is suggested that a detailed cost-benefit assessment, including considering full transmission risks, needs to occur in order to determine the appropriate quarantine period for potentially exposed individuals.
背景
21天被视为对可能接触埃博拉病毒（EV）的个人进行隔离的适宜期限，以降低传染风险。对于这一期限的依据，似乎尚无系统性讨论。
方法
研究了此前对埃博拉病毒潜伏期的估计，以及当前疫情最初9个月的数据。这些数据提供了潜伏期分布的估计。
结果
21天的隔离期可能导致在潜伏期充分发展之前就放走有0.2%至12%释放风险的个体。建议进行详细的成本效益评估，包括考虑全面的传播风险，以便确定对可能接触者的适宜隔离期。
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