Legrand J, Grais R F, Boelle P Y, Valleron A J, Flahault A
INSERM, UMR-S 707, Paris, France.
Epidemiol Infect. 2007 May;135(4):610-21. doi: 10.1017/S0950268806007217. Epub 2006 Sep 26.
Ebola is a highly lethal virus, which has caused at least 14 confirmed outbreaks in Africa between 1976 and 2006. Using data from two epidemics [in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 1995 and in Uganda in 2000], we built a mathematical model for the spread of Ebola haemorrhagic fever epidemics taking into account transmission in different epidemiological settings. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) to be 2.7 (95% CI 1.9-2.8) for the 1995 epidemic in DRC, and 2.7 (95% CI 2.5-4.1) for the 2000 epidemic in Uganda. For each epidemic, we quantified transmission in different settings (illness in the community, hospitalization, and traditional burial) and simulated various epidemic scenarios to explore the impact of control interventions on a potential epidemic. A key parameter was the rapid institution of control measures. For both epidemic profiles identified, increasing hospitalization rate reduced the predicted epidemic size.
埃博拉病毒是一种高致死性病毒，在1976年至2006年间已在非洲至少引发了14次确诊疫情。利用两次疫情的数据（1995年刚果民主共和国和2000年乌干达的疫情），我们构建了一个考虑到不同流行病学环境下传播情况的埃博拉出血热疫情传播数学模型。我们估计1995年刚果民主共和国疫情的基本再生数（R0）为2.7（95%置信区间1.9 - 2.8），2000年乌干达疫情的基本再生数为2.7（95%置信区间2.5 - 4.1）。对于每次疫情，我们量化了不同环境下的传播情况（社区发病、住院治疗和传统丧葬），并模拟了各种疫情场景，以探讨控制干预措施对潜在疫情的影响。一个关键参数是迅速实施控制措施。对于所确定的两种疫情概况，提高住院率均能降低预测的疫情规模。
