Rate of growth of AIDS epidemic in Europe: a comparative analysis.

Estimates of the rate of increase of the AIDS epidemic for each of 18 European countries are obtained by fitting a Poisson process with exponential rate of growth to data. A linear regression model of these estimates on the proportion of cases that are intravenous drug users, homosexuals/bisexuals and heterosexuals, was estimated and suggested that the rates of growth of the epidemics amongst these groups are different and in increasing order. Empirical Bayes estimates of the rates are obtained for each country.