Nasserinejad Kazem, van Rosmalen Joost, van den Hurk Katja, Baart Mireille, Hoekstra Trynke, Rizopoulos Dimitris, Lesaffre Emmanuel, de Kort Wim
Department of Biostatistics, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Department of Donor Studies, Sanquin Research, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Transfusion. 2015 Aug;55(8):1955-63. doi: 10.1111/trf.13066. Epub 2015 Mar 10.
A too short recovery time after blood donation results in a gradual depletion of iron stores and a subsequent decline in hemoglobin (Hb) levels over time. This decline in Hb levels may depend on individual, unobserved characteristics of the donor.
We used a data set of 5388 Dutch blood donors from the Donor InSight study. The statistical analysis is based on a Bayesian growth mixture model, which assumes that each donor belongs to one of several groups. Each group implies a different Hb trajectory, and donors with similar longitudinal trajectories belong to the same group. Analyses were performed for male and female donors separately.
For both sexes the model identified four groups of donors. Stable Hb trajectories were found among 14% of male donors and 15% of female donors; declining Hb trajectories were observed in the remaining groups of donors. The percentage of donor deferrals differed strongly between groups.
The model can be used to predict to which group a donor belongs, and this prediction can be updated after each donation. This is of high practical importance because early identification of donors with declining Hb levels could help to tailor donation intervals and to prevent iron deficiency and donor deferrals.
献血后恢复时间过短会导致铁储备逐渐耗尽，随后血红蛋白（Hb）水平随时间下降。Hb水平的这种下降可能取决于献血者个体未观察到的特征。
我们使用了来自“献血者洞察”研究的5388名荷兰献血者的数据集。统计分析基于贝叶斯生长混合模型，该模型假设每个献血者属于几个组中的一组。每个组意味着不同的Hb轨迹，具有相似纵向轨迹的献血者属于同一组。分别对男性和女性献血者进行了分析。
男女模型均识别出四组献血者。14%的男性献血者和15%的女性献血者Hb轨迹稳定；其余组的献血者Hb轨迹下降。不同组之间献血者延期的百分比差异很大。
该模型可用于预测献血者所属的组，并且每次献血后都可以更新此预测。这具有很高的实际重要性，因为早期识别Hb水平下降的献血者有助于调整献血间隔，并预防缺铁和献血者延期。
