Levi Lea, Jaramillo Fernando, Andričević Roko, Destouni Georgia
Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Teknikringen 76, 100 44, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ambio. 2015 Nov;44(7):624-34. doi: 10.1007/s13280-015-0641-0. Epub 2015 Mar 10.
In this study, we investigate long-term hydroclimatic changes and their possible relation to regional changes in climate, land-use and water-use over the twentieth century in the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe. In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers. Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments. Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations. This provides a useful basis for further assessment of possible future hydroclimatic changes, under different scenarios of climate change and land/water-use developments in the region.
在本研究中，我们调查了东南欧跨界萨瓦河流域（SRC）20世纪长期水文气候的变化及其与区域气候、土地利用和水资源利用变化之间的可能关系。在萨瓦河流域水电主导的区域，与未受调控的区域不同，我们发现年平均蒸发散增加，径流时间变异性降低，这难以通过观测到的同期气温和降水气候变化来解释，可能更多地与景观内部变化驱动因素有关。在此研究的后者中，结果表明水电开发与所发现的水文气候变化最为密切相关，这与之前瑞典水电集水区研究中的此类迹象一致。总体而言，目前的结果已定量勾勒出萨瓦河流域近期水文气候的历史和现状，这对几个国家的水资源及其大多数人口具有重要意义。这为在该区域气候变化和土地/水资源利用发展的不同情景下，进一步评估未来可能的水文气候变化提供了有用的基础。
