Jaramillo Fernando, Piemontese Luigi, Berghuijs Wouter R, Wang-Erlandsson Lan, Greve Peter, Wang Zhenqian
Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden.
Baltic Sea Centre Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden.
Water Resour Res. 2022 Aug;58(8):e2021WR031825. doi: 10.1029/2021WR031825. Epub 2022 Aug 22.
The Budyko framework consists of a curvilinear relationship between the evaporative ratio (i.e., actual evaporation over precipitation) and the aridity index (i.e., potential evaporation over precipitation) and defines evaporation's water and energy limits. A basin's movement within the Budyko space illustrates its hydroclimatic change and helps identify the main drivers of change. On the one hand, long-term aridity changes drive evaporative ratio changes, moving basins along their Budyko curves. On the other hand, historical human development can cause river basins to deviate from their curves. The question is if basins will deviate or follow their Budyko curves under the future effects of global warming and related human developments. To answer this, we quantify the movement in the Budyko space of 405 river basins from 1901-1950 to 2051-2100 based on the outputs of seven models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 6 (CMIP6). We account for the implications of using different potential evaporation models and study low- and high-emissions scenarios. We find considerable differences of movement in Budyko space regarding direction and intensity when using the two estimates of potential evaporation. However, regardless of the potential evaporation estimate and the scenario used, most river basins will not follow their reference Budyko curves (>72%). Furthermore, the number of basins not following their curves increases under high greenhouse gas emissions and fossil-fueled development SP585 and across dry and wet basin groups. We elaborate on the possible explanations for a large number of basins not following their Budyko curves.
布迪科框架由蒸发比（即实际蒸发量与降水量之比）和干旱指数（即潜在蒸发量与降水量之比）之间的曲线关系组成，并定义了蒸发的水分和能量限制。流域在布迪科空间内的移动说明了其水文气候的变化，并有助于确定变化的主要驱动因素。一方面，长期干旱变化驱动蒸发比变化，使流域沿着其布迪科曲线移动。另一方面，历史人类发展可能导致流域偏离其曲线。问题是，在全球变暖和相关人类发展的未来影响下，流域是会偏离还是遵循其布迪科曲线。为了回答这个问题，我们基于耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）的七个模型的输出，量化了405个流域在1901 - 1950年至2051 - 2100年期间在布迪科空间内的移动。我们考虑了使用不同潜在蒸发模型的影响，并研究了低排放和高排放情景。我们发现，在使用两种潜在蒸发估计值时，布迪科空间内的移动在方向和强度上存在相当大的差异。然而，无论使用何种潜在蒸发估计值和情景，大多数流域都不会遵循其参考布迪科曲线（>72%）。此外，在高温室气体排放和化石燃料驱动的发展情景SP585下，以及在干湿流域组中，不遵循其曲线的流域数量都会增加。我们详细阐述了大量流域不遵循其布迪科曲线的可能原因。
