热带气旋降雨区域受相对海面温度控制。

Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature.

作者信息

Lin Yanluan, Zhao Ming, Zhang Minghua

机构信息

Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08540-6649, USA.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2015 Mar 12;6:6591. doi: 10.1038/ncomms7591.

DOI:10.1038/ncomms7591

PMID:25761457

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4382685/

Abstract

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates.

摘要

预计在气候变暖的情况下，热带气旋的降雨率将会增加。热带气旋的覆盖面积会影响其对人类生活的影响，但对于热带气旋降雨区域未来将如何变化，人们却知之甚少。在此，我们利用卫星数据和全球大气模型模拟表明，热带气旋降雨区域主要受其相对于热带平均海表温度（即相对海表温度）的环境海表温度控制，而降雨率则随着绝对海表温度的升高而增加。我们的结果与之前的数值模拟一致，之前的模拟表明热带气旋大小与对流层中层相对湿度之间存在紧密关系。如果海表温度变化相对均匀，预计在气候变暖的情况下，热带气旋降雨区域的全球统计数据不会有明显变化，这意味着总降雨量的增加将局限于降雨率较高的类似规模区域。