National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
Science. 2010 Jan 22;327(5964):454-8. doi: 10.1126/science.1180568.
Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.
几项近期的模型表明，随着气候变暖，大西洋热带气旋的频率可能会降低。然而，这些模型无法重现强度达到 3 级或更高的风暴。我们通过使用一种业务飓风预测模型的降尺度策略，来探索未来全球变暖对大西洋飓风的影响，该模型可根据当前条件生成强烈飓风活动的现实分布。该模型预测，尽管热带气旋的总体频率下降，但到 21 世纪末，4 级和 5 级风暴的频率几乎增加一倍，当基于 18 个全球气候变化预测的集合平均值进行降尺度时。预计最大的增幅将出现在北纬 20 度以北的西大西洋。
