Prognostic importance of prostate-specific antigen for monitoring patients with stages B2 to D1 prostate cancer.

To evaluate the prognostic value of prostate-specific antigen (PA) for detection of tumor growth after definitive therapy, 602 sera from 70 patients with stages B2 to D1 prostate cancer (26 of whom recurred) were analyzed in a blind study. Using Cox's proportional-hazards model, a highly significant association was found between serially measured PA and disease-free survival time (p = 0.0002). A positive predictive value of 100% was found for some markedly elevated PA levels and confirmed recurrence of disease. In fact, this study suggested that once a PA level of 88 ng/ml was reached, there was an average time of less than 2 months before a recurrence was clinically confirmed. Tumor growth in patients who recurred was indicated by a PA elevation before recurrence in 92% (24 of 26) as opposed to 20% (9 of 44) in disease-free patients. Additionally, in these 24 of 26 patients, levels of PA were elevated 12 months (mean lead time) before a confirmed disease recurrence. In patients who were still disease free, serial PA appeared to increase concurrently with putative tumor growth as shown by the initial surgical stage. Generally, the greater the PA level the more advanced was the stage of disease (B2 to D1). These data suggest that PA may be a useful adjuvant marker for monitoring tumor growth in patients with regionally confined prostate cancer.