Estenoz Shannon, Bush Eric
Office of Everglades Restoration Initiatives, US Department of the Interior, Davie, FL, USA,
Environ Manage. 2015 Apr;55(4):876-83. doi: 10.1007/s00267-015-0452-x. Epub 2015 Mar 15.
Managers were invited to attend the two-day "Predicting Ecological Changes in the Florida Everglades in a Future Climate Scenario" workshop and to participate in discussion and panel sessions. This paper provides a management perspective on the technical presentations presented at the workshop, identifying information of particular interest to Everglades restoration decision-making. In addition, the paper highlights the points related to science and decision-making that emerged from the discussion sessions and provides thoughts for future discussion in a follow-up forum. Particular focus is dedicated to the importance of and challenges associated with integrating science and decision-making. In addition, the paper offers a management perspective on the uncertainties of climate science and the implications they have for influencing Everglades restoration decision-making. The authors propose that on the one hand, even given uncertainties associated with predicting the ecological response to climate change, there remains a scientific consensus that Everglades restoration is generally on the right track. On the other hand, uncertainty can be a significant barrier to climate science influencing the implementation of restoration and adaptive management programs.
管理人员受邀参加为期两天的“预测未来气候情景下佛罗里达大沼泽地的生态变化”研讨会，并参与讨论和小组会议。本文从管理角度对研讨会上的技术报告进行阐述，识别出对大沼泽地恢复决策特别有意义的信息。此外，本文突出了讨论环节中出现的与科学和决策相关的要点，并为后续论坛的进一步讨论提供思路。特别关注科学与决策整合的重要性及相关挑战。此外，本文从管理角度探讨了气候科学的不确定性及其对大沼泽地恢复决策的影响。作者提出，一方面，即使预测气候变化对生态的影响存在不确定性，但科学界仍达成共识，认为大沼泽地恢复总体上方向正确。另一方面，不确定性可能成为气候科学影响恢复和适应性管理计划实施的重大障碍。
