Myeloid leukemia risk assessment and dynamics of the granulocytopoietic system in acutely and continuously irradiated humans: modeling approach.

A dynamic modeling approach to the risk assessment of radiogenic myeloid leukemia is proposed. A basic tool of this approach is a biologically motivated mathematical model of the granulocytopoietic system, which is capable of predicting the dynamics of blood granulocytes and bone marrow granulocytopoietic cells in acutely and chronically irradiated humans. The performed modeling studies revealed that the dose dependence of the scaled maximal concentration of bone marrow granulocytopoietic cells with radiation-induced changes, which make a cell premalignant, and the dose dependence of the scaled integral of the concentration of these cells over the period of the response of the granulocytopoietic system to acute irradiation conform to the dose dependence of excess relative risk for myeloid leukemia among atomic bomb survivors in a wide range of doses and in a range of comparatively low doses, respectively. Additionally, the dose dependence of the scaled integral of the concentration of these cells over the period of the response of the granulocytopoietic system to continuous irradiation with the dose rate and durations, which were used in brachytherapy, conforms to the dose dependence of excess relative risk for leukemia among the respective groups of exposed patients. These modeling findings demonstrate the potential to use the proposed modeling approach for predicting the excess relative risk for myeloid leukemia among humans exposed to various radiation regimes. Obviously, this is especially important in the assessment of the risks for radiogenic myeloid leukemia among people residing in contaminated areas after an accident or explosion of a radiological device, among astronauts on long-term space missions, as well as among patients treated with radiotherapy.