Federal State Unitary Enterprise Research and Technical Center of Radiation-Chemical Safety and Hygiene, Moscow, Russian Federation.
Department of Health Physics and Diagnostic Sciences, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV, USA.
Life Sci Space Res (Amst). 2018 Feb;16:76-83. doi: 10.1016/j.lssr.2017.12.002. Epub 2017 Dec 21.
A recently developed biologically motivated dynamical model of the assessment of the excess relative risk (ERR) for radiogenic leukemia among acutely/continuously irradiated humans (Smirnova, 2015, 2017) is applied to estimate the ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions. Numerous scenarios of space radiation exposure during space missions are used in the modeling studies. The dependence of the ERR for leukemia among astronauts on several mission parameters including the dose equivalent rates of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and large solar particle events (SPEs), the number of large SPEs, the time interval between SPEs, mission duration, the degree of astronaut's additional shielding during SPEs, the degree of their additional 12-hour's daily shielding, as well as the total mission dose equivalent, is examined. The results of the estimation of ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts, which are obtained in the framework of the developed dynamical model for various scenarios of space radiation exposure, are compared with the corresponding results, computed by the commonly used linear model. It is revealed that the developed dynamical model along with the linear model can be applied to estimate ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions in the range of applicability of the latter. In turn, the developed dynamical model is capable of predicting the ERR for leukemia among astronauts for the irradiation regimes beyond the applicability range of the linear model in emergency cases. As a supplement to the estimations of cancer incidence and death (REIC and REID) (Cucinotta et al., 2013, 2017), the developed dynamical model for the assessment of the ERR for leukemia can be employed on the pre-mission design phase for, e.g., the optimization of the regimes of astronaut's additional shielding in the course of interplanetary space missions. The developed model can also be used on the phase of the real-time responses during the space mission to make the decisions on the operational application of appropriate countermeasures to minimize the risks of occurrences of leukemia, especially, for emergency cases.
最近开发的一种基于生物学原理的评估人类急性/连续辐射后辐射性白血病超额相对风险 (ERR) 的动态模型（Smirnova，2015，2017）被应用于估计长期行星际太空任务中宇航员的辐射性白血病 ERR。在建模研究中使用了许多太空辐射暴露场景。该模型研究了宇航员白血病 ERR 与几个任务参数之间的关系，包括银河宇宙射线 (GCR) 和大太阳质子事件 (SPE) 的剂量当量率、大 SPE 的数量、SPE 之间的时间间隔、任务持续时间、宇航员在 SPE 期间的额外屏蔽程度、他们每天额外 12 小时的屏蔽程度，以及总任务剂量当量。在开发的动态模型框架内，针对各种太空辐射暴露场景，对宇航员辐射性白血病 ERR 的估计结果与常用线性模型计算的相应结果进行了比较。结果表明，开发的动态模型与线性模型一样，可用于估计长期行星际太空任务中宇航员的辐射性白血病 ERR，只要后者的适用范围内。反过来，在紧急情况下，开发的动态模型能够预测线性模型适用范围之外的宇航员白血病 ERR。作为癌症发病率和死亡率（REIC 和 REID）（Cucinotta 等人，2013，2017）估计的补充，用于评估白血病 ERR 的开发动态模型可用于任务前设计阶段，例如优化宇航员在行星际太空任务期间的额外屏蔽方案。该模型还可用于太空任务的实时响应阶段，以便就操作应用适当的对策做出决策，以最大程度地降低白血病发生的风险，特别是在紧急情况下。
