Cohen B L
University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260.
Health Phys. 1989 Dec;57(6):897-907. doi: 10.1097/00004032-198912000-00004.
Counties in the U.S. with high lung cancer rates should have higher average 222Rn levels than counties with low lung cancer rates, assuming the average 222Rn level in a county is not correlated with other factors that cause lung cancer. The magnitude of this effect was calculated, using the absolute risk model, the relative risk model, and an intermediate model, for females who died in 1950-1969. The results were similar for all three models. We concluded that, ignoring migration, the average Rn level in the highest lung cancer counties should be about three times higher than in the lowest lung cancer counties according to the theory. Preliminary data are presented indicating that the situation is quite the opposite: The average Rn level in the highest lung cancer counties was only about one-half that in the lowest lung cancer counties.
假设一个县的平均氡-222水平与其他导致肺癌的因素无关，那么美国肺癌发病率高的县的平均氡-222水平应该高于肺癌发病率低的县。使用绝对风险模型、相对风险模型和一个中间模型，计算了1950年至1969年期间死亡女性的这种影响的大小。这三种模型的结果相似。我们得出结论，忽略人口迁移因素，根据理论，肺癌发病率最高的县的平均氡水平应该比肺癌发病率最低的县高三倍左右。初步数据表明情况恰恰相反：肺癌发病率最高的县的平均氡水平仅约为肺癌发病率最低的县的一半。
