Feng Zhixuan, Reniers Ad, Haus Brian K, Solo-Gabriele Helena M, Wang John D, Fleming Lora E
Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA; NSF NIEHS Oceans and Human Health Center, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA; NSF NIEHS Oceans and Human Health Center, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA; Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Environmental Fluid Mechanics Section, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, Netherlands.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2015 May 15;94(1-2):37-47. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.03.019. Epub 2015 Apr 1.
Human health protection at recreational beaches requires accurate and timely information on microbiological conditions to issue advisories. The objective of this study was to develop a new numerical mass balance model for enterococci levels on nonpoint source beaches. The significant advantage of this model is its easy implementation, and it provides a detailed description of the cross-shore distribution of enterococci that is useful for beach management purposes. The performance of the balance model was evaluated by comparing predicted exceedances of a beach advisory threshold value to field data, and to a traditional regression model. Both the balance model and regression equation predicted approximately 70% the advisories correctly at the knee depth and over 90% at the waist depth. The balance model has the advantage over the regression equation in its ability to simulate spatiotemporal variations of microbial levels, and it is recommended for making more informed management decisions.
在休闲海滩保护人类健康需要有关微生物状况的准确及时信息以发布相关建议。本研究的目的是为非点源海滩上的肠球菌水平开发一种新的数值质量平衡模型。该模型的显著优点是易于实施，并且它提供了肠球菌跨岸分布的详细描述，这对于海滩管理目的很有用。通过将预测的海滩建议阈值超标情况与现场数据以及传统回归模型进行比较，评估了平衡模型的性能。平衡模型和回归方程在膝盖深度处预测大约70%的建议正确，在腰部深度处超过90%。平衡模型相对于回归方程的优势在于其模拟微生物水平时空变化的能力，建议使用它来做出更明智的管理决策。
