Structure-activity relationship (SAR) modelling of mosquito larvicides.

An attempt was made to derive structure-activity models allowing the prediction of the larvicidal activity of structurally diverse chemicals against mosquitoes. A database of 188 chemicals with their activity on Aedes aegypti larvae was constituted from analysis of original publications. The activity values were expressed in log 1/IC50 (concentration required to produce 50% inhibition of larval development, mmol). All the chemicals were encoded by means of CODESSA and autocorrelation descriptors. Partial least squares analysis, classification and regression tree, random forest and boosting regression tree analyses, Kohonen self-organizing maps, linear artificial neural networks, three-layer perceptrons, radial basis function artificial neural networks and support vector machines with linear, polynomial, radial basis function and sigmoid kernels were tested as statistical tools. Because quantitative models did not give good results, a two-class model was designed. The three-layer perceptron significantly outperformed the other statistical approaches regardless of the threshold value used to split the data into active and inactive compounds. The most interesting configuration included eight autocorrelation descriptors as input neurons and four neurons in the hidden layer. This led to more than 96% of good predictions on both the training set and external test set of 88 and 100 chemicals, respectively. From the overall simulation results, new candidate molecules were proposed which will be shortly synthesized and tested.