[The prevalence of chronic drinkers in Mexico: an ecologic analysis].

Alcohol consumption is an important element in the epidemiologic profile of Mexico. This can be confirmed observing the increased per capita consumption of certain alcoholic beverages (like beer and wine), alcohol related medical problems (e.g. liver cirrhosis), social problems (i.e. violence) and by the data provided by household surveys of prevalence of alcohol consumption in Mexico since the 60's. The population's consumption of alcoholic beverages has generated concern, as the Simple Distribution Theory (SDT) predicts that an increment in the per capita alcohol consumption is likely to be accompanied by an increment of heavy drinkers. This increment is, then, related to a theoretical increment in alcohol related damages. In order to partially test the SDT data from a series of surveys done in the country, six surveys of the 70's were used. Those surveys were executed in six cities, the capital of five states and the capital of the Republic, with a comparable methodology and definition of alcohol consumption. We used prevalence data of heavy drinkers in those cities as an independent variable for a series of medical and social problems, in a multiple-group comparison study. In general, the results do not support the SDT in the case of mortality by liver cirrhosis, suicide and traffic deaths, or for alcohol related offenses at the Federal Courts. Nevertheless, the results seem to support the SDT for some groups in Common Court offenses and for the rate of traffic accidents. In a comparison with other independent variables (prevalence of abstainers, per capita bars, illiteracy, unemployment, and population density), the prevalence of heavy drinkers and population density were the best. Both obtained the largest number of statistically significant correlations with the problems studied. For the prevalence of heavy drinkers some of those correlations were in the inverse sense as predicted by the SDT.